{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a86a2b2f-fe16-490a-93e2-cd8e03ee688d", "symbol": "EPAR3", "name": "Embpar Participacoes S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.933, "architecture_energy": 71.101, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 27.37, "upward_expansion": 12.23, "deceleration": 48.65, "rotation_down": 63.52, "downward_expansion": 87.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.344667, 1.458182, 1.740667, 2.085312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.31, "trend_reference": 2.574333, "distance_from_trend": -0.49113, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.632655, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.717225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -62.766508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.637119, "excess_performance": -0.580071, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.49113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.717225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.627665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.637119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.003316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26500, "relative_activity": 0.651426, "balance": 0.003316, "dry_up": 1.109882, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12155, "annualized_volatility": 0.33895, "from_high_reference": -0.731557, "from_low_reference": 0.007692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.574333, "fair_value_reference": 4.632655, "structural_low": 1.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.047059, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.070575, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.3125, "worst_return": -0.254386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.178047, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.340513, "worst_return": -0.494253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079888, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.573784, "worst_return": -0.385882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2.465935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.35, "volume": 94700, "typical_volume": 40345.0, "trend": 2.850667, "fair_value": 4.735478, "relative_strength": -64.44207, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.52821, "energy": 76.661493, "activity_lines": [ 1.555333, 1.654182, 2.00781, 2.362796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.34, "volume": 41000, "typical_volume": 40845.0, "trend": 2.755333, "fair_value": 4.700695, "relative_strength": -63.937371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.286024, "energy": 74.466398, "activity_lines": [ 1.468, 1.576182, 1.909905, 2.265333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.32, "volume": 18400, "typical_volume": 41270.0, "trend": 2.665, "fair_value": 4.666979, "relative_strength": -64.485666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.913925, "energy": 72.719017, "activity_lines": [ 1.397333, 1.511636, 1.82081, 2.172731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.31, "volume": 26500, "typical_volume": 40680.0, "trend": 2.574333, "fair_value": 4.632655, "relative_strength": -62.766508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.933286, "energy": 71.100504, "activity_lines": [ 1.344667, 1.458182, 1.740667, 2.085312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }