{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a86c2563-17ec-401d-b7e4-362e07da2c02", "symbol": "USFD", "name": "US Foods Holding Corp.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.326, "architecture_energy": 66.083, "architecture_maturity": 43.56, "architecture_confidence": 58.267, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.79, "rotation_up": 33.53, "upward_expansion": 64.8, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 32.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 1409.400024, 1409.400024, 1415.185532, 1367.046369 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1409.400024, "trend_reference": 1302.592, "distance_from_trend": 0.081997, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1036.024103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.360393, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.062024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.212909, "excess_performance": 0.267576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081997, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.360393, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277487, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.11062, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117968, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.212909, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": null, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01029, "annualized_volatility": 0.481287, "from_high_reference": -0.117989, "from_low_reference": 0.212909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1302.592, "fair_value_reference": 1036.024103, "structural_low": 1162.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.001842, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.375163, "worst_return": -0.117989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.212909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.069681, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.212909, "worst_return": 0.212909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.375163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 728.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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1443.680009, 1389.495236, 1334.162578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1409.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.0, "trend": 1277.851998, "fair_value": 1022.920256, "relative_strength": 11.868862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.345587, "energy": 32.739759, "activity_lines": [ 1409.400024, 1429.968015, 1397.684953, 1343.18159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1409.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.0, "trend": 1286.098665, "fair_value": 1027.288205, "relative_strength": 12.182232, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.403555, "energy": 30.178626, "activity_lines": [ 1409.400024, 1419.684019, 1404.696575, 1351.66856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1409.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.0, "trend": 1294.345333, "fair_value": 1031.656154, "relative_strength": 11.182598, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.621223, "energy": 27.321952, "activity_lines": [ 1409.400024, 1412.828022, 1410.530101, 1359.623486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1409.400024, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 330.0, "trend": 1302.592, "fair_value": 1036.024103, "relative_strength": 11.062024, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.32624, "energy": 66.083033, "activity_lines": [ 1409.400024, 1409.400024, 1415.185532, 1367.046369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }