{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a86fabab-67d6-4cd0-bc32-e23205223508", "symbol": "TMS", "name": "Tennant Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.945, "architecture_energy": 19.334, "architecture_maturity": 31.462, "architecture_confidence": 79.417, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 20.14, "upward_expansion": 13.2, "deceleration": 46.5, "rotation_down": 40.89, "downward_expansion": 65.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006967, 0.006964, 0.007129, 0.007146 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.007317, "distance_from_trend": -0.04328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.015304, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.542618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.136566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.188706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.542618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120503, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081366, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50058, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3586152, "relative_activity": 0.194418, "balance": 0.674542, "dry_up": 1.222164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.208791, "annualized_volatility": 1.049041, "from_high_reference": -0.416667, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.007317, "fair_value_reference": 0.015304, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.031281, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.029332, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.048387, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.022197, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": -0.461538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.215251, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.206703, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.034483, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.313929, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.348574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.243243, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.517857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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0.0071, 0.006973, 0.007138, 0.007194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 52499815, "typical_volume": 18357587.1, "trend": 0.00735, "fair_value": 0.015458, "relative_strength": -5.288347, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.561625, "energy": 11.938876, "activity_lines": [ 0.007067, 0.006955, 0.007131, 0.007169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3586152, "typical_volume": 18445541.8, "trend": 0.007317, "fair_value": 0.015304, "relative_strength": -8.136566, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.944743, "energy": 19.334405, "activity_lines": [ 0.006967, 0.006964, 0.007129, 0.007146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }