{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8727cc2-aba4-499f-affd-9e46d1f5b225", "symbol": "MCHN", "name": "Invesco MSCI China All Shares Connect UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 73.616, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.465, "architecture_energy": 5.498, "architecture_maturity": 34.992, "architecture_confidence": 37.528, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.98, "rotation_up": 29.29, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 38.77, "rotation_down": 23.78, "downward_expansion": 59.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.531, 26.403091, 26.478762, 26.526387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.075001, "trend_reference": 26.703333, "distance_from_trend": 0.013918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.403391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.156884, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.092953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010055, "excess_performance": -0.180947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.156884, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14093, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048182, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010055, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.474106, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8516, "relative_activity": 1.452598, "balance": 2.474106, "dry_up": 1.185993, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020229, "annualized_volatility": 0.142044, "from_high_reference": -0.0625, "from_low_reference": 0.082784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.703333, "fair_value_reference": 23.403391, "structural_low": 25.209999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018912, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.026854, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.293631, "worst_return": -0.09527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041455, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.105863, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.259532, "worst_return": -0.089758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043955, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.128036, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.400762, "worst_return": -0.052024, "sufficient": 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41.767593, "activity_lines": [ 26.330333, 26.415, 26.511333, 26.62914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.735001, "volume": 2715, "typical_volume": 5786.05, "trend": 26.786167, "fair_value": 23.316019, "relative_strength": -16.294957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.179665, "energy": 64.172414, "activity_lines": [ 26.124, 26.267091, 26.436143, 26.558882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.205, "volume": 13974, "typical_volume": 5892.9, "trend": 26.767667, "fair_value": 23.339, "relative_strength": -14.337146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.992983, "energy": 39.870424, "activity_lines": [ 26.121334, 26.231091, 26.411976, 26.521387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.504999, "volume": 2607, "typical_volume": 5694.6, "trend": 26.734833, "fair_value": 23.365987, "relative_strength": -13.678188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.194413, "energy": 27.533144, "activity_lines": [ 26.246333, 26.264545, 26.416595, 26.504441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.075001, "volume": 8516, "typical_volume": 5862.6, "trend": 26.703333, "fair_value": 23.403391, "relative_strength": -14.092953, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.464713, "energy": 5.497727, "activity_lines": [ 26.531, 26.403091, 26.478762, 26.526387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }