{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a87750ed-b777-44a5-a92b-182a376218a7", "symbol": "NBXG", "name": "Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.155, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.625, "architecture_energy": 17.914, "architecture_maturity": 67.824, "architecture_confidence": 84.38, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.97, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 45.38, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 35.85, "downward_expansion": 25.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.061187, 15.384216, 15.427539, 14.956828 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.26, "trend_reference": 14.39223, "distance_from_trend": 0.060294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.589083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316756, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.78094, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191453, "excess_performance": 0.065828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316756, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.454388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 890878, "relative_activity": 0.840537, "balance": 1.454388, "dry_up": 1.191005, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070562, "annualized_volatility": 0.272206, "from_high_reference": -0.117815, "from_low_reference": 0.267853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.39223, "fair_value_reference": 11.589083, "structural_low": 12.036096, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014344, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.116664, "worst_return": -0.087456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000437, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161616, "worst_return": -0.071155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.199609, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0365, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20364, "worst_return": 0.131281, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.11956, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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"volume": 901633, "typical_volume": 1057122.95, "trend": 14.322179, "fair_value": 11.50081, "relative_strength": -1.815267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.817567, "energy": 21.980617, "activity_lines": [ 15.309434, 15.673781, 15.396343, 14.869963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.76, "volume": 1276069, "typical_volume": 1061843.35, "trend": 14.351408, "fair_value": 11.543705, "relative_strength": -3.827147, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.901131, "energy": 20.130475, "activity_lines": [ 15.075601, 15.473765, 15.393632, 14.898209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.26, "volume": 890878, "typical_volume": 1059891.9, "trend": 14.39223, "fair_value": 11.589083, "relative_strength": -3.78094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.625385, "energy": 17.913934, "activity_lines": [ 15.061187, 15.384216, 15.427539, 14.956828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }