{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a87c8759-4b82-4e8c-ae25-482afc251089", "symbol": "UEFI", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.06, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.721, "architecture_energy": 31.104, "architecture_maturity": 63.719, "architecture_confidence": 61.789, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.01, "rotation_up": 38.7, "upward_expansion": 69.0, "deceleration": 82.55, "rotation_down": 26.8, "downward_expansion": 16.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.523733, 33.584964, 33.409862, 33.316754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.375999, "trend_reference": 33.176555, "distance_from_trend": 0.006012, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.146879, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006912, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.855873, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022317, "excess_performance": -0.042323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006012, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006912, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.092546, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7, "relative_activity": 0.011217, "balance": 1.092546, "dry_up": 0.113372, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007105, "annualized_volatility": 0.049848, "from_high_reference": -0.129453, "from_low_reference": 0.040579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.176555, "fair_value_reference": 33.146879, "structural_low": 32.441002, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.005064, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019724, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.020318, "worst_return": -0.128557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005332, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.049872, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.021941, "worst_return": -0.148251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035595, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124425, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.046767, "worst_return": -0.139339, "sufficient": true }, { 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85.174112, "activity_lines": [ 33.640466, 33.409818, 33.248348, 33.162119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.695, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 698.0, "trend": 33.078821, "fair_value": 33.104674, "relative_strength": -1.406433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.023023, "energy": 86.591165, "activity_lines": [ 33.693, 33.493691, 33.296429, 33.204025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.727001, "volume": 274, "typical_volume": 670.45, "trend": 33.108507, "fair_value": 33.115475, "relative_strength": -0.423888, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.755695, "energy": 86.059548, "activity_lines": [ 33.726867, 33.568273, 33.343838, 33.245843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.749001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 667.15, "trend": 33.145491, "fair_value": 33.126662, "relative_strength": -1.459611, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.08019, "energy": 80.321843, "activity_lines": [ 33.737534, 33.629491, 33.389505, 33.287166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.395, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 663.7, "trend": 33.166881, "fair_value": 33.137089, "relative_strength": -4.387487, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.727788, "energy": 46.976378, "activity_lines": [ 33.616534, 33.612182, 33.399905, 33.303263 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.375999, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 624.05, "trend": 33.176555, "fair_value": 33.146879, "relative_strength": -6.855873, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.720821, "energy": 31.103695, "activity_lines": [ 33.523733, 33.584964, 33.409862, 33.316754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }