{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a881cda3-cad5-49f1-b636-c7293b8cf728", "symbol": "300301", "name": "Shenzhen Changfang Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.639, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.866, "architecture_energy": 9.278, "architecture_maturity": 20.027, "architecture_confidence": 56.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.31, "rotation_up": 18.59, "upward_expansion": 42.47, "deceleration": 83.93, "rotation_down": 34.61, "downward_expansion": 31.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.385333, 3.468909, 3.479905, 3.411957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.23, "trend_reference": 3.222, "distance_from_trend": 0.002483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.053974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.572561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.123978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.422907, "excess_performance": 0.415508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121736, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.572561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340139, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.11124, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075823, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.422907, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.096552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38417317, "relative_activity": 0.522471, "balance": 0.096552, "dry_up": 0.583014, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097404, "annualized_volatility": 0.528581, "from_high_reference": -0.212195, "from_low_reference": 0.560386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.222, "fair_value_reference": 2.053974, "structural_low": 2.27, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.007292, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.014408, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.365079, "worst_return": -0.18125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036303, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.682403, "worst_return": -0.208145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020489, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005121, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.540773, "worst_return": -0.276018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.225422, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.147916, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.033333, "worst_return": -0.31441, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.099237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047368, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04661, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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2.022244, "relative_strength": 29.897868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.745262, "energy": 60.495623, "activity_lines": [ 3.66, 3.537818, 3.51781, 3.375183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.46, "volume": 42622567, "typical_volume": 81148153.55, "trend": 3.160667, "fair_value": 2.033333, "relative_strength": 24.099131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.892041, "energy": 45.875275, "activity_lines": [ 3.610667, 3.533273, 3.516952, 3.396731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.36, "volume": 36953700, "typical_volume": 76920453.55, "trend": 3.193333, "fair_value": 2.04391, "relative_strength": 21.965974, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.422034, "energy": 14.717165, "activity_lines": [ 3.508, 3.512364, 3.505143, 3.409591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.23, "volume": 38417317, "typical_volume": 73529995.3, "trend": 3.222, "fair_value": 2.053974, "relative_strength": 11.123978, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.866009, "energy": 9.277938, "activity_lines": [ 3.385333, 3.468909, 3.479905, 3.411957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }