{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a88233a5-e1aa-4416-92a1-6f91f0612156", "symbol": "HFY", "name": "Hubify Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.318, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.621, "architecture_energy": 41.067, "architecture_maturity": 51.017, "architecture_confidence": 90.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.24, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 25.5, "deceleration": 29.43, "rotation_down": 36.84, "downward_expansion": 66.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0112, 0.011109, 0.0116, 0.012353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.011, "trend_reference": 0.0125, "distance_from_trend": -0.12, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.011654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.666561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.571429, "excess_performance": 0.507723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071429, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026666, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.571429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.212954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1085433, "relative_activity": 1.430518, "balance": 0.212954, "dry_up": 0.595002, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090909, "annualized_volatility": 1.612192, "from_high_reference": -0.633333, "from_low_reference": 0.571429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0125, "fair_value_reference": 0.011654, "structural_low": 0.007, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.01497, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.290008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.285714, "worst_return": 0.190476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.860119, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.846714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.625, "worst_return": 0.095238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.428571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.526868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.428571, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.022, "volume": 843348, "typical_volume": 824506.8, "trend": 0.026533, "fair_value": 0.055282, "relative_strength": -24.09335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.357388, "energy": 21.961267, "activity_lines": [ 0.026133, 0.024655, 0.024633, 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0.012604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.011, "volume": 405096, "typical_volume": 1705030.2, "trend": 0.0123, "fair_value": 0.011878, "relative_strength": 3.734549, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.952672, "energy": 18.485714, "activity_lines": [ 0.0114, 0.011091, 0.012005, 0.012527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.011, "volume": 131184, "typical_volume": 1231092.35, "trend": 0.0124, "fair_value": 0.011756, "relative_strength": 0.886977, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.685991, "energy": 24.723362, "activity_lines": [ 0.011333, 0.011091, 0.01179, 0.012443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.011, "volume": 1085433, "typical_volume": 758769.4, "trend": 0.0125, "fair_value": 0.011654, "relative_strength": -2.666561, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.620704, "energy": 41.067357, "activity_lines": [ 0.0112, 0.011109, 0.0116, 0.012353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }