{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a886ff4d-a591-4086-86e6-605f64816110", "symbol": "NUEM", "name": "NUVEEN ESG EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.57, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.824, "architecture_energy": 14.924, "architecture_maturity": 26.412, "architecture_confidence": 85.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.19, "rotation_up": 23.75, "upward_expansion": 46.87, "deceleration": 83.59, "rotation_down": 35.96, "downward_expansion": 29.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.62766, 40.905389, 41.027369, 40.407999 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.7, "trend_reference": 39.63762, "distance_from_trend": 0.052031, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.749666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.859709, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086461, "excess_performance": -0.039164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052031, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049099, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086461, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.137904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110099, "relative_activity": 0.820899, "balance": 2.137904, "dry_up": 1.558709, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052574, "annualized_volatility": 0.254918, "from_high_reference": -0.066289, "from_low_reference": 0.290215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.63762, "fair_value_reference": 30.749666, "structural_low": 33.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006538, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.007667, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.051204, "worst_return": -0.018249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019709, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018372, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133074, "worst_return": -0.026233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06776, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.041231, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.133949, "worst_return": -0.082206, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 15.958263, "activity_lines": [ 40.992673, 41.295425, 40.892769, 40.178742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.8693, "volume": 76916, "typical_volume": 114923.25, "trend": 39.360337, "fair_value": 30.553389, "relative_strength": -0.682434, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.42202, "energy": 16.267924, "activity_lines": [ 40.444927, 41.027765, 40.891205, 40.22048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.0485, "volume": 509815, "typical_volume": 133720.3, "trend": 39.48162, "fair_value": 30.643954, "relative_strength": -1.378838, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.543809, "energy": 12.121794, "activity_lines": [ 40.21096, 40.808518, 40.89014, 40.264877 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.7, "volume": 110099, "typical_volume": 134120.1, "trend": 39.63762, "fair_value": 30.749666, "relative_strength": -0.859709, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.82402, "energy": 14.924275, "activity_lines": [ 40.62766, 40.905389, 41.027369, 40.407999 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }