{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a888bbe2-c719-4727-adeb-a8a063d757ad", "symbol": "900927", "name": "Shanghai Material Trading Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.428, "architecture_energy": 40.76, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.182, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.34, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 36.9, "downward_expansion": 66.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3256, 0.323764, 0.328524, 0.339348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.335, "trend_reference": 0.356067, "distance_from_trend": -0.059165, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.385872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.750398, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160401, "excess_performance": -0.117197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059165, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00538, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090063, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160401, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.138626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1607701, "relative_activity": 3.769365, "balance": 1.138626, "dry_up": 1.757783, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029621, "annualized_volatility": 0.132575, "from_high_reference": -0.284188, "from_low_reference": 0.080645 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.356067, "fair_value_reference": 0.385872, "structural_low": 0.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.002242, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": 0.000431, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.163462, "worst_return": -0.091837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.06366, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.00353, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.400631, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009877, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002481, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.597122, "worst_return": -0.160401, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.324091, 0.335814, 0.349069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.322, "volume": 432401, "typical_volume": 390971.0, "trend": 0.363233, "fair_value": 0.388397, "relative_strength": -12.567257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.429453, "energy": 61.221167, "activity_lines": [ 0.322267, 0.323036, 0.333257, 0.346249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.318, "volume": 566700, "typical_volume": 381722.7, "trend": 0.360633, "fair_value": 0.387474, "relative_strength": -14.308197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.811592, "energy": 61.865227, "activity_lines": [ 0.3208, 0.321618, 0.330681, 0.343331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.322, "volume": 392100, "typical_volume": 381416.7, "trend": 0.3581, "fair_value": 0.386577, "relative_strength": -13.20466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.524898, "energy": 57.204876, "activity_lines": [ 0.321067, 0.321345, 0.328838, 0.340839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.335, "volume": 1607701, "typical_volume": 426517.75, "trend": 0.356067, "fair_value": 0.385872, "relative_strength": -11.750398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.428212, "energy": 40.75965, "activity_lines": [ 0.3256, 0.323764, 0.328524, 0.339348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }