{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a88960bf-f20a-4bf3-bcd7-72a08dc5229e", "symbol": "MSTR", "name": "Strategy Inc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.539, "architecture_energy": 52.946, "architecture_maturity": 40.543, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 22.05, "upward_expansion": 8.58, "deceleration": 49.68, "rotation_down": 57.03, "downward_expansion": 81.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1656.021322, 1694.566908, 2032.865613, 2169.068852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1716.949951, "trend_reference": 2327.426322, "distance_from_trend": -0.262297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3730.365671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.982424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26469, "excess_performance": -0.210023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.262297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175395, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424771, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.509824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.452663, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11505, "relative_activity": 0.800766, "balance": 0.452663, "dry_up": 1.398399, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.189917, "annualized_volatility": 0.832204, "from_high_reference": -0.777019, "from_low_reference": 0.196481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2327.426322, "fair_value_reference": 3730.365671, "structural_low": 1435.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.137372, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.135814, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.30106, "worst_return": -0.2729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25962, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.269682, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.209727, "worst_return": -0.50201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.606452, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.762546, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.606452, "worst_return": -0.606452, "sufficient": false 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.75599, "energy": 80.914944, "activity_lines": [ 1729.23868, 2002.652914, 2297.429994, 2369.46382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1655.5, "volume": 25611, "typical_volume": 12882.35, "trend": 2445.082324, "fair_value": 3712.186568, "relative_strength": -57.352859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.450364, "energy": 81.495936, "activity_lines": [ 1680.184009, 1887.00255, 2227.052709, 2315.736487 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1603.0, "volume": 32112, "typical_volume": 13926.8, "trend": 2404.182324, "fair_value": 3717.462209, "relative_strength": -57.007971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.715377, "energy": 70.667899, "activity_lines": [ 1645.929338, 1789.848187, 2154.370186, 2261.408595 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1620.390015, "volume": 11138, "typical_volume": 14215.7, "trend": 2364.423661, "fair_value": 3723.510222, "relative_strength": -55.389363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.5353, "energy": 62.357145, "activity_lines": [ 1640.698006, 1722.96019, 2086.900998, 2210.841349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1716.949951, "volume": 11505, "typical_volume": 14367.5, "trend": 2327.426322, "fair_value": 3730.365671, "relative_strength": -50.982424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.53929, "energy": 52.946122, "activity_lines": [ 1656.021322, 1694.566908, 2032.865613, 2169.068852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }