{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a88c3ca4-8b66-4a13-9def-46d6d837ed57", "symbol": "TCH-F57", "name": "Tachlit Indices Mutual Fund Management Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) S&P Consumer Staples", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.567, "architecture_energy": 67.369, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.97, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 50.71, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.486667, 309.658182, 3547.867619, 5669.082151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 116.1, "trend_reference": 8077.736667, "distance_from_trend": -0.985627, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11447.898077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.921153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.99046, "excess_performance": -1.01936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985627, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.291572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989858, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.89718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.691501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.99046, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4145, "relative_activity": 1.167787, "balance": 1.235207, "dry_up": 1.273789, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.911283, "annualized_volatility": 6.309737, "from_high_reference": -0.990829, "from_low_reference": 0.075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8077.736667, "fair_value_reference": 11447.898077, "structural_low": 108.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.018464, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.000537, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.095238, "worst_return": -0.9895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027629, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.069849, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.074583, "worst_return": -0.052632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045555, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.120797, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149166, "worst_return": -0.99, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.178914, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089648, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.184492, "worst_return": -0.047815, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014419, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.074346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021916, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.057357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.98925, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11930.0, "volume": 2793, "typical_volume": 2227.8, "trend": 11508.666667, "fair_value": 10154.128205, "relative_strength": 6.566953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"close": 115.5, "volume": 3686, "typical_volume": 3329.1, "trend": 8806.606667, "fair_value": 11600.116667, "relative_strength": -99.008419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993348, "energy": 78.036744, "activity_lines": [ 115.28, 1286.843636, 4866.278095, 6766.603011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.8, "volume": 6504, "typical_volume": 3494.45, "trend": 8438.866667, "fair_value": 11524.205128, "relative_strength": -98.933663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.631919, "energy": 67.548847, "activity_lines": [ 116.326667, 697.930909, 4179.267619, 6206.034839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 116.1, "volume": 4145, "typical_volume": 3549.45, "trend": 8077.736667, "fair_value": 11447.898077, "relative_strength": -98.921153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.566825, "energy": 67.368627, "activity_lines": [ 116.486667, 309.658182, 3547.867619, 5669.082151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }