{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a891985b-40ba-4103-b31b-4dc2d404e15b", "symbol": "MAIN", "name": "Main Street Capital Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.972, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.575, "architecture_energy": 56.421, "architecture_maturity": 12.806, "architecture_confidence": 74.565, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.45, "rotation_up": 72.1, "upward_expansion": 51.19, "deceleration": 20.45, "rotation_down": 14.27, "downward_expansion": 23.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.593712, 53.992646, 52.901528, 53.144791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 58.94, "trend_reference": 54.318896, "distance_from_trend": 0.085074, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.312056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219985, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.686514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001605, "excess_performance": -0.12402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085074, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027425, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.219985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074081, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.655593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4017592, "relative_activity": 1.199003, "balance": 1.655593, "dry_up": 0.948546, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04724, "annualized_volatility": 0.247166, "from_high_reference": -0.0773, "from_low_reference": 0.217391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.318896, "fair_value_reference": 48.312056, "structural_low": 48.415025, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.013016, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.016584, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.113457, "worst_return": -0.142991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055128, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.064858, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192694, "worst_return": -0.099293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035467, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.033728, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.27674, "worst_return": -0.138722, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093053, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 52.60349, "volume": 3518998, "typical_volume": 3749924.35, "trend": 54.800753, "fair_value": 47.744152, "relative_strength": -16.592261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.18515, "energy": 21.892171, "activity_lines": [ 51.557073, 51.175292, 51.748274, 52.945184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.122165, "volume": 3348939, "typical_volume": 3728007.3, "trend": 54.707136, "fair_value": 47.88595, "relative_strength": -10.749844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.157909, "energy": 12.352186, "activity_lines": [ 52.820352, 51.912103, 52.005704, 52.965921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.23067, "volume": 2882715, "typical_volume": 3666841.45, "trend": 54.521687, "fair_value": 48.011698, "relative_strength": -12.778003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.721415, "energy": 16.771254, "activity_lines": [ 53.207977, 52.274052, 52.084414, 52.870665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.166462, "volume": 2464223, "typical_volume": 3557153.4, "trend": 54.335827, "fair_value": 48.14268, "relative_strength": -11.688909, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.869976, "energy": 17.528259, "activity_lines": [ 53.719251, 52.745563, 52.266532, 52.847747 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.94, "volume": 4017592, "typical_volume": 3350777.4, "trend": 54.318896, "fair_value": 48.312056, "relative_strength": -6.686514, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.574908, "energy": 56.420748, "activity_lines": [ 55.593712, 53.992646, 52.901528, 53.144791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }