{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a892ce01-875c-491e-96ac-0332fdda212c", "symbol": "8354", "name": "Koan Hao Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.187, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.002, "architecture_energy": 19.427, "architecture_maturity": 19.185, "architecture_confidence": 76.96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.05, "rotation_up": 36.98, "upward_expansion": 54.38, "deceleration": 80.12, "rotation_down": 28.97, "downward_expansion": 22.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.245792, 16.20542, 16.248465, 16.090852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.700001, "trend_reference": 15.878025, "distance_from_trend": 0.114748, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.043694, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.03031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.176508, "excess_performance": -0.264864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114748, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006991, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176573, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014409, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190303, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044618, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.176508, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.281582, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2543790, "relative_activity": 2.177934, "balance": 2.281582, "dry_up": 0.726473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067616, "annualized_volatility": 0.33139, "from_high_reference": -0.085944, "from_low_reference": 0.294213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.878025, "fair_value_reference": 15.043694, "structural_low": 14.696962, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005214, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009175, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.138889, "worst_return": -0.063492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020202, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021841, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.161972, "worst_return": -0.030201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017214, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.083751, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.176508, "worst_return": -0.044045, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04127, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", 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"typical_volume": 1037347.4, "trend": 15.853851, "fair_value": 14.96972, "relative_strength": -23.936943, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.685872, "energy": 14.210396, "activity_lines": [ 16.308994, 16.381516, 16.232624, 16.032758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.640348, "volume": 344799, "typical_volume": 1048981.45, "trend": 15.837301, "fair_value": 14.985613, "relative_strength": -26.987417, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.853986, "energy": 10.065953, "activity_lines": [ 16.087215, 16.226241, 16.19976, 16.018984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.739653, "volume": 397574, "typical_volume": 1052751.35, "trend": 15.833991, "fair_value": 15.001555, "relative_strength": -24.891469, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.98673, "energy": 9.237451, "activity_lines": [ 15.94488, 16.117007, 16.173515, 16.012684 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.15, "volume": 107871, "typical_volume": 1045646.55, "trend": 15.804405, "fair_value": 15.014304, "relative_strength": -28.765245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.702198, "energy": 24.520829, "activity_lines": [ 15.629165, 15.915007, 16.089222, 15.968556 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 2543790, "typical_volume": 1167983.2, "trend": 15.878025, "fair_value": 15.043694, "relative_strength": -19.03031, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.001833, "energy": 19.426641, "activity_lines": [ 16.245792, 16.20542, 16.248465, 16.090852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }