{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a894254b-ebb6-4232-9a91-6239ce32e579",
    "symbol": "DAX3L",
    "name": "SG ETC DAX +3x Daily Leveraged Collateralized",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.876,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 79.882,
    "architecture_energy": 66.434,
    "architecture_maturity": 38.365,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.369,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.63,
        "rotation_up": 63.11,
        "upward_expansion": 84.42,
        "deceleration": 49.31,
        "rotation_down": 14.94,
        "downward_expansion": 13.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        183.964666,
        179.585636,
        173.821048,
        169.835333
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 199.279999,
    "trend_reference": 168.944,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.179562,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 127.893313,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.558174,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 0.927416,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.113918,
    "excess_performance": -0.056973,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.179562,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015384,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.558174,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.204346,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009274,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.17055,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113918,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.867359,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 265,
      "relative_activity": 0.28026,
      "balance": 1.867359,
      "dry_up": 0.350325,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.065382,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.576439,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.64057
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 168.944,
      "fair_value_reference": 127.893313,
      "structural_low": 121.470001,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.006046,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014105,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.167228,
        "worst_return": -0.168641,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.063999,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.085571,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.080077,
        "worst_return": -0.268047,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.027755,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.043759,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.57635,
        "worst_return": -0.26997,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.201278,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.077246,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.711624,
        "worst_return": -0.447463,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001483,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.20002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.018308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.56808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.03665,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.017693,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.062721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.044059,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.133101,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.041272,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
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        "return": -0.157815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-05-15",
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        "return": 0.085638,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.150843,
        "active": true
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.692148,
        "energy": 25.635702,
        "activity_lines": [
          160.547336,
          153.634001,
          161.430952,
          164.433485
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 161.559998,
        "volume": 2492,
        "typical_volume": 1230.25,
        "trend": 166.467894,
        "fair_value": 119.335749,
        "relative_strength": -16.127586,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.477121,
        "energy": 23.433283,
        "activity_lines": [
          161.869335,
          155.054364,
          160.853,
          164.087298
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 153.899994,
        "volume": 562,
        "typical_volume": 1148.1,
        "trend": 166.07356,
        "fair_value": 119.835172,
        "relative_strength": -19.386498,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.912574,
        "energy": 17.930081,
        "activity_lines": [
          159.317999,
          155.603272,
          159.595475,
          163.276466
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 173.160004,
        "volume": 2844,
        "typical_volume": 1265.25,
        "trend": 166.055667,
        "fair_value": 120.487351,
        "relative_strength": -9.675683,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -11.092295,
        "energy": 10.789324,
        "activity_lines": [
          163.234667,
          159.618546,
          160.261762,
          163.733656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 177.240005,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 1236.05,
        "trend": 166.384333,
        "fair_value": 121.161262,
        "relative_strength": -8.123044,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.168677,
        "energy": 19.292701,
        "activity_lines": [
          168.358002,
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          161.333429,
          164.455226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 169.149994,
        "volume": 1179,
        "typical_volume": 1244.3,
        "trend": 166.734666,
        "fair_value": 121.793185,
        "relative_strength": -11.57426,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.119386,
        "energy": 17.977221,
        "activity_lines": [
          169.569999,
          165.942,
          161.692904,
          164.633656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 165.520004,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 1158.9,
        "trend": 166.750333,
        "fair_value": 122.365941,
        "relative_strength": -15.756282,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 12.131474,
        "energy": 20.16457,
        "activity_lines": [
          169.076001,
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          161.829524,
          164.55529
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 173.520004,
        "volume": 552,
        "typical_volume": 1176.4,
        "trend": 167.578,
        "fair_value": 123.038762,
        "relative_strength": -13.583128,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 18.58974,
        "energy": 34.102697,
        "activity_lines": [
          170.984669,
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          164.992043
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 166.110001,
        "volume": 80,
        "typical_volume": 1173.95,
        "trend": 167.675333,
        "fair_value": 123.636262,
        "relative_strength": -14.211747,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.739989,
        "energy": 12.892754,
        "activity_lines": [
          169.115335,
          168.053638,
          163.092048,
          164.897334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 189.139999,
        "volume": 410,
        "typical_volume": 1148.15,
        "trend": 168.408333,
        "fair_value": 124.430428,
        "relative_strength": -4.849406,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 37.405289,
        "energy": 36.543181,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.392668,
          172.244728,
          165.628524,
          166.282151
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 173.220001,
        "volume": 220,
        "typical_volume": 1127.3,
        "trend": 168.503,
        "fair_value": 125.081775,
        "relative_strength": -11.985685,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 25.456041,
        "energy": 32.586719,
        "activity_lines": [
          175.570001,
          172.993637,
          166.617715,
          166.592581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 168.479996,
        "volume": 460,
        "typical_volume": 1107.2,
        "trend": 168.384,
        "fair_value": 125.69498,
        "relative_strength": -12.637454,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.66198,
        "energy": 21.927931,
        "activity_lines": [
          173.895999,
          172.671455,
          167.234857,
          166.591097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 172.669998,
        "volume": 330,
        "typical_volume": 1002.05,
        "trend": 168.383,
        "fair_value": 126.312287,
        "relative_strength": -9.81592,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 23.8438,
        "energy": 26.749608,
        "activity_lines": [
          173.421332,
          172.985272,
          168.354619,
          166.867613
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 183.720001,
        "volume": 270,
        "typical_volume": 954.2,
        "trend": 168.617333,
        "fair_value": 127.047416,
        "relative_strength": -4.465021,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 35.117429,
        "energy": 24.288322,
        "activity_lines": [
          176.686666,
          174.966909,
          170.428095,
          167.857097
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 199.279999,
        "volume": 265,
        "typical_volume": 945.55,
        "trend": 168.944,
        "fair_value": 127.893313,
        "relative_strength": 0.927416,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.881793,
        "energy": 66.43395,
        "activity_lines": [
          183.964666,
          179.585636,
          173.821048,
          169.835333
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}