{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a898d6f7-f78a-4ab0-878a-24ad7bec0729", "symbol": "XPEV", "name": "Xpeng Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.698, "architecture_energy": 51.589, "architecture_maturity": 93.684, "architecture_confidence": 90.076, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 7.75, "deceleration": 58.91, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 78.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.648667, 12.875455, 13.95681, 14.870172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.13, "trend_reference": 16.077333, "distance_from_trend": -0.245522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.167564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.487606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315463, "excess_performance": -0.441088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.245522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122612, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315463, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40513775, "relative_activity": 1.233554, "balance": 0.507248, "dry_up": 1.025473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128884, "annualized_volatility": 0.447374, "from_high_reference": -0.570391, "from_low_reference": 0.051127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.077333, "fair_value_reference": 15.167564, "structural_low": 11.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.011981, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.0553, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.596392, "worst_return": -0.424451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.144573, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.171609, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.956032, "worst_return": -0.31601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123444, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.26866, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.624822, "worst_return": -0.433119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 34658105, "typical_volume": 34318876.35, "trend": 16.869667, "fair_value": 15.299167, "relative_strength": -34.07633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.570203, "energy": 67.170658, "activity_lines": [ 13.093333, 13.7, 14.824762, 15.666172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.33, "volume": 32535729, "typical_volume": 34115430.4, "trend": 16.588, "fair_value": 15.228269, "relative_strength": -38.998658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.250864, "energy": 57.326359, "activity_lines": [ 12.874, 13.341091, 14.493619, 15.37329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.0, "volume": 27011324, "typical_volume": 32796519.15, "trend": 16.340333, "fair_value": 15.194167, "relative_strength": -35.842229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.940635, "energy": 49.662386, "activity_lines": [ 12.936667, 13.163818, 14.250048, 15.141806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.13, "volume": 40513775, "typical_volume": 32843125.5, "trend": 16.077333, "fair_value": 15.167564, "relative_strength": -41.487606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.69811, "energy": 51.588974, "activity_lines": [ 12.648667, 12.875455, 13.95681, 14.870172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }