{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a89cf779-84a4-45fc-acc1-40a351712b52", "symbol": "CDRO", "name": "Codere Online US Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.123, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.72, "architecture_energy": 11.269, "architecture_maturity": 40.125, "architecture_confidence": 80.297, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.27, "rotation_up": 17.38, "upward_expansion": 44.53, "deceleration": 86.16, "rotation_down": 31.96, "downward_expansion": 24.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.163333, 9.354909, 9.368905, 9.155161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.97, "trend_reference": 8.822667, "distance_from_trend": 0.016699, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.019903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.277796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.396596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.142675, "excess_performance": -0.044778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016699, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096392, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.277796, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008135, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148229, "relative_activity": 1.064386, "balance": 1.145227, "dry_up": 0.789231, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085064, "annualized_volatility": 0.174569, "from_high_reference": -0.125731, "from_low_reference": 0.73166 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.822667, "fair_value_reference": 7.019903, "structural_low": 7.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.010449, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023172, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104475, "worst_return": -0.201149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006623, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048583, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.146763, "worst_return": -0.226437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085568, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02629, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.313953, "worst_return": -0.075862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.706237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.426149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.657807, "worst_return": -0.245333, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099338, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02875, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209749, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197701, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.310345, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032362, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.23, "volume": 31553, "typical_volume": 63400.65, "trend": 3.065137, "fair_value": 3.607954, "relative_strength": -5.065953, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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8.701333, "fair_value": 6.907274, "relative_strength": 3.347173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.293788, "energy": 20.508801, "activity_lines": [ 9.502667, 9.578, 9.368381, 9.077763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.27, "volume": 62639, "typical_volume": 134997.4, "trend": 8.740667, "fair_value": 6.945031, "relative_strength": 4.907318, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.259281, "energy": 17.242979, "activity_lines": [ 9.381333, 9.526273, 9.386524, 9.114452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.18, "volume": 107133, "typical_volume": 135600.05, "trend": 8.778333, "fair_value": 6.983044, "relative_strength": 3.571607, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.859431, "energy": 16.925398, "activity_lines": [ 9.292, 9.458364, 9.390238, 9.142796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.97, "volume": 148229, "typical_volume": 139262.45, "trend": 8.822667, "fair_value": 7.019903, "relative_strength": -3.396596, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.720133, "energy": 11.26942, "activity_lines": [ 9.163333, 9.354909, 9.368905, 9.155161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }