{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a89e0bd4-81c8-4ac3-82ca-3969510d4d1e", "symbol": "ARDT", "name": "Ardent Health Partners, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.144, "architecture_energy": 60.183, "architecture_maturity": 23.256, "architecture_confidence": 72.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.43, "rotation_up": 72.54, "upward_expansion": 89.08, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 12.17, "downward_expansion": 11.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.848667, 10.454727, 10.04881, 9.812344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.55, "trend_reference": 9.500667, "distance_from_trend": 0.215704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.938704, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.7486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.291946, "excess_performance": 0.166321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.215704, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017486, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190287, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291946, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.404756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2869800, "relative_activity": 1.205126, "balance": 1.404756, "dry_up": 1.165866, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106333, "annualized_volatility": 0.405508, "from_high_reference": -0.253876, "from_low_reference": 0.498054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.500667, "fair_value_reference": 12.938704, "structural_low": 7.71, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096963, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", 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9.343667, "fair_value": 12.973208, "relative_strength": -6.029496, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.419232, "energy": 58.510075, "activity_lines": [ 10.352667, 9.959455, 9.759952, 9.588796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.67, "volume": 2898481, "typical_volume": 2339206.15, "trend": 9.411333, "fair_value": 12.951682, "relative_strength": -6.512165, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.941069, "energy": 50.981509, "activity_lines": [ 10.485333, 10.140182, 9.865524, 9.674366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.55, "volume": 2869800, "typical_volume": 2381327.55, "trend": 9.500667, "fair_value": 12.938704, "relative_strength": -1.7486, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.143878, "energy": 60.183005, "activity_lines": [ 10.848667, 10.454727, 10.04881, 9.812344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }