{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8a87261-6ad5-4d33-aacb-0f030c0bec31", "symbol": "CNDI", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX 60 Daily Inverse ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.1, "architecture_energy": 76.093, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.121, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 23.69, "upward_expansion": 12.41, "deceleration": 48.36, "rotation_down": 72.93, "downward_expansion": 90.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.186001, 17.316364, 17.624381, 17.942409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 16.950001, "trend_reference": 18.340333, "distance_from_trend": -0.075807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.188077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.299241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.362923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12943, "excess_performance": -0.249851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.299241, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223629, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.393717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14000, "relative_activity": 0.635209, "balance": 0.393717, "dry_up": 1.032214, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013615, "annualized_volatility": 0.113047, "from_high_reference": -0.237517, "from_low_reference": 0.008929 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.340333, "fair_value_reference": 24.188077, "structural_low": 16.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.015354, "positive_rate": 0.304348, "directional_follow_through": 0.695652, "median_excess_return": -0.027028, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.077941, "worst_return": -0.050847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.02603, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.066445, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.132743, "worst_return": -0.082717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.064203, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.121233, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.078652, "worst_return": -0.138293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018531, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.024851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007321, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.094088, "active": false 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"energy": 92.766639, "activity_lines": [ 17.476, 17.653091, 18.007238, 18.280774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 9400, "typical_volume": 29810.0, "trend": 18.558333, "fair_value": 24.420897, "relative_strength": -20.867046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.766087, "energy": 92.362286, "activity_lines": [ 17.396667, 17.554364, 17.90881, 18.194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.32, "volume": 40800, "typical_volume": 23980.0, "trend": 18.488, "fair_value": 24.345833, "relative_strength": -20.158299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.098764, "energy": 89.184603, "activity_lines": [ 17.351333, 17.481818, 17.818714, 18.114107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 26800, "typical_volume": 24525.0, "trend": 18.413333, "fair_value": 24.267244, "relative_strength": -19.072674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.6731, "energy": 86.194992, "activity_lines": [ 17.316, 17.424, 17.733238, 18.036817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 22040.0, "trend": 18.340333, "fair_value": 24.188077, "relative_strength": -22.362923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.09966, "energy": 76.093465, "activity_lines": [ 17.186001, 17.316364, 17.624381, 17.942409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }