{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8aced58-ede7-46de-8a61-6d9618cd7d85", "symbol": "688500", "name": "HCR Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.152, "architecture_energy": 78.111, "architecture_maturity": 70.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.405, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 9.47, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 37.67, "rotation_down": 77.2, "downward_expansion": 93.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.390001, 38.030001, 43.46781, 46.394172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.650002, "trend_reference": 51.155333, "distance_from_trend": -0.283555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.556923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096332, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.442665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.406574, "excess_performance": -0.36337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.283555, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144049, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.384427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151261, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.670113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10239191, "relative_activity": 1.006894, "balance": 0.670113, "dry_up": 1.246822, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192024, "annualized_volatility": 0.580277, "from_high_reference": -0.59543, "from_low_reference": 0.421093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.155333, "fair_value_reference": 40.556923, "structural_low": 25.790001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.010445, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.03948, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.422778, "worst_return": -0.198149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006826, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.04039, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.444444, "worst_return": -0.23283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.256621, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.264607, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.50068, "worst_return": -0.246792, "sufficient": false 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060204, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.260535, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.174963, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", 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32.34, "volume": 11097593, "typical_volume": 10137182.8, "trend": 51.992333, "fair_value": 40.435192, "relative_strength": -45.018682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.886344, "energy": 85.431335, "activity_lines": [ 34.271334, 39.166909, 44.49, 47.384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.650002, "volume": 10239191, "typical_volume": 10169083.5, "trend": 51.155333, "fair_value": 40.556923, "relative_strength": -38.442665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.15151, "energy": 78.111003, "activity_lines": [ 34.390001, 38.030001, 43.46781, 46.394172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }