{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8af3780-eea0-4387-8633-1fa07f1f2fac", "symbol": "CVV", "name": "Caravel Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.148, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.387, "architecture_energy": 24.951, "architecture_maturity": 57.566, "architecture_confidence": 79.993, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.56, "rotation_up": 25.42, "upward_expansion": 14.52, "deceleration": 44.82, "rotation_down": 35.57, "downward_expansion": 64.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.265, 0.260909, 0.270119, 0.286548 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.27, "trend_reference": 0.316833, "distance_from_trend": -0.147817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.208814, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.330402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.307692, "excess_performance": -0.371398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003669, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.676265, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1055487, "relative_activity": 0.592519, "balance": 1.676265, "dry_up": 0.955473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128917, "annualized_volatility": 0.549539, "from_high_reference": -0.485714, "from_low_reference": 1.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.316833, "fair_value_reference": 0.208814, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.031886, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.024349, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.276761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006829, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.533333, "worst_return": -0.297426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052381, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009631, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.172414, "worst_return": -0.341336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.265, "volume": 2496051, "typical_volume": 1963971.45, "trend": 0.32, "fair_value": 0.207885, "relative_strength": -0.404078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.945781, "energy": 46.986445, "activity_lines": [ 0.251333, 0.258, 0.272214, 0.292645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.275, "volume": 1257064, "typical_volume": 1892047.4, "trend": 0.3195, "fair_value": 0.208365, "relative_strength": 0.190448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.136051, "energy": 31.390464, "activity_lines": [ 0.26, 0.259545, 0.271214, 0.289742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.27, "volume": 1055487, "typical_volume": 1781356.15, "trend": 0.316833, "fair_value": 0.208814, "relative_strength": -5.330402, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.387021, "energy": 24.95149, "activity_lines": [ 0.265, 0.260909, 0.270119, 0.286548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }