{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8b1bbbc-65de-46a1-a146-70fe150a1053", "symbol": "SGL", "name": "SGL Carbon SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.52, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.661, "architecture_energy": 33.263, "architecture_maturity": 5.952, "architecture_confidence": 57.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.36, "rotation_up": 14.95, "upward_expansion": 19.13, "deceleration": 56.23, "rotation_down": 61.19, "downward_expansion": 46.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.039667, 4.185909, 4.365381, 4.287839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.31, "trend_reference": 4.207333, "distance_from_trend": 0.024402, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.799359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101963, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.223207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047514, "excess_performance": -0.221761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125256, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101963, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022616, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126471, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047514, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.167818, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2600, "relative_activity": 1.724024, "balance": 4.167818, "dry_up": 0.862012, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103962, "annualized_volatility": 0.631498, "from_high_reference": -0.22482, "from_low_reference": 0.670543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.207333, "fair_value_reference": 4.799359, "structural_low": 3.145, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068418, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.060777, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.180578, "worst_return": -0.081794, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.184479, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.123843, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282504, "worst_return": -0.228232, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.179257, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.115961, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.373194, "worst_return": -0.387521, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051546, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157289, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099635, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.413846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028969, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128272, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.115, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 78.85, "trend": 8.391833, "fair_value": 6.846455, "relative_strength": -7.897168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", 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4.778667, 4.766636, 4.461833, 4.293914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2429.85, "trend": 4.056167, "fair_value": 4.918013, "relative_strength": -3.456019, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.616653, "energy": 26.027383, "activity_lines": [ 4.620333, 4.718, 4.478286, 4.321849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.0, "volume": 281, "typical_volume": 2443.9, "trend": 4.090167, "fair_value": 4.891186, "relative_strength": -11.503244, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.972097, "energy": 18.599068, "activity_lines": [ 4.376667, 4.592182, 4.45381, 4.318226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.04, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2116.5, "trend": 4.124667, "fair_value": 4.867276, "relative_strength": -8.33407, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.094351, "energy": 24.947227, "activity_lines": [ 4.198, 4.479364, 4.434476, 4.314989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.895, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 1595.4, "trend": 4.149833, "fair_value": 4.843686, "relative_strength": -12.393706, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.411977, "energy": 33.525766, "activity_lines": [ 4.047, 4.348091, 4.40081, 4.300172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1595.4, "trend": 4.171333, "fair_value": 4.820609, "relative_strength": -13.678597, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.379946, "energy": 42.622272, "activity_lines": [ 3.949333, 4.216273, 4.360143, 4.278892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.31, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 1508.1, "trend": 4.207333, "fair_value": 4.799359, "relative_strength": -5.223207, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.661446, "energy": 33.262636, "activity_lines": [ 4.039667, 4.185909, 4.365381, 4.287839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }