{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8b70667-a94e-4acc-8151-131afb0878ef", "symbol": "ATP", "name": "Atlas Pearls Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.368, "architecture_energy": 35.484, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.101, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.56, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 24.78, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.93, "downward_expansion": 63.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.092, 0.090182, 0.093136, 0.100524 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.09, "trend_reference": 0.117233, "distance_from_trend": -0.2323, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.122137, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.35078, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.52, "excess_performance": -0.583706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2323, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222247, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.413508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061502, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.52, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522843, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 273877, "relative_activity": 0.492892, "balance": 0.522843, "dry_up": 0.741883, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064103, "annualized_volatility": 0.771897, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.139241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.117233, "fair_value_reference": 0.122137, "structural_low": 0.079, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.037745, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035623, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.473699, "worst_return": -0.130434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.122317, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.108769, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.281212, "worst_return": -0.248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.498325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.424311, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.615372, "worst_return": -0.18752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.085, "volume": 295247, "typical_volume": 1164543.9, "trend": 0.1308, "fair_value": 0.120496, "relative_strength": -43.463715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.425702, "energy": 84.924329, "activity_lines": [ 0.084867, 0.089318, 0.095498, 0.108881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.097, "volume": 716013, "typical_volume": 849953.55, "trend": 0.127367, "fair_value": 0.120939, "relative_strength": -35.018512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.473871, "energy": 66.791659, "activity_lines": [ 0.088333, 0.09, 0.095086, 0.1067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.093, "volume": 415888, "typical_volume": 718912.2, "trend": 0.123967, "fair_value": 0.121348, "relative_strength": -37.020288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.692242, "energy": 57.932911, "activity_lines": [ 0.090267, 0.090055, 0.094379, 0.104483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.093, "volume": 243140, "typical_volume": 595172.4, "trend": 0.1204, "fair_value": 0.121756, "relative_strength": -37.97422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.427972, "energy": 45.650787, "activity_lines": [ 0.092, 0.090327, 0.093824, 0.102485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.09, "volume": 273877, "typical_volume": 555652.75, "trend": 0.117233, "fair_value": 0.122137, "relative_strength": -41.35078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.367678, "energy": 35.484378, "activity_lines": [ 0.092, 0.090182, 0.093136, 0.100524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }