{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8bb87f0-ce06-4343-be3b-a16336e31120", "symbol": "600603", "name": "Guanghui Logistics Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.364, "architecture_energy": 59.136, "architecture_maturity": 74.544, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 28.44, "upward_expansion": 11.21, "deceleration": 56.62, "rotation_down": 49.43, "downward_expansion": 82.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.311333, 4.369091, 4.770095, 5.294237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.39, "trend_reference": 5.869667, "distance_from_trend": -0.252087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.987179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.371706, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.92621, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.328746, "excess_performance": -0.285542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.371706, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.349262, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052695, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.328746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.200298, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58358218, "relative_activity": 0.841925, "balance": 0.200298, "dry_up": 0.958609, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108989, "annualized_volatility": 0.42651, "from_high_reference": -0.544133, "from_low_reference": 0.094763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.869667, "fair_value_reference": 6.987179, "structural_low": 4.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.001391, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.015058, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.290135, "worst_return": -0.143599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.026283, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.240484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056168, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042405, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.731922, "worst_return": -0.305598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.26, "volume": 60699223, "typical_volume": 80957525.25, "trend": 6.086333, "fair_value": 7.034679, "relative_strength": -36.179687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.85705, "energy": 68.227273, "activity_lines": [ 4.403333, 4.544909, 5.163286, 5.629118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.02, "volume": 71048428, "typical_volume": 78733460.6, "trend": 6.003667, "fair_value": 7.014423, "relative_strength": -39.820352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.851047, "energy": 73.17127, "activity_lines": [ 4.270667, 4.414909, 4.991476, 5.495806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.42, "volume": 75678937, "typical_volume": 72593881.15, "trend": 5.930667, "fair_value": 6.99891, "relative_strength": -33.410683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.500118, "energy": 62.422721, "activity_lines": [ 4.298, 4.386545, 4.873571, 5.393634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.39, "volume": 58358218, "typical_volume": 69315221.0, "trend": 5.869667, "fair_value": 6.987179, "relative_strength": -34.92621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.364247, "energy": 59.136133, "activity_lines": [ 4.311333, 4.369091, 4.770095, 5.294237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }