{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8bfd6f2-369e-4787-9664-7c233964d6cd", "symbol": "JPESG", "name": "UBS MSCI Japan Universal UCITS ETF JPY acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.582, "architecture_energy": 42.601, "architecture_maturity": 63.149, "architecture_confidence": 80.9, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.63, "rotation_up": 39.49, "upward_expansion": 65.04, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.92, "downward_expansion": 24.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.6944, 11.746073, 11.5762, 11.364482 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.966, "trend_reference": 11.111867, "distance_from_trend": 0.076867, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.919301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341585, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.074014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.133573, "excess_performance": -0.037318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076867, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059966, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035852, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01074, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133573, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.545724, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78, "relative_activity": 0.018164, "balance": 8.545724, "dry_up": 0.338138, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019247, "annualized_volatility": 0.196606, "from_high_reference": -0.009601, "from_low_reference": 0.384153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.111867, "fair_value_reference": 8.919301, "structural_low": 10.202, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020469, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018972, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.081298, "worst_return": -0.119598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139919, "worst_return": 0.016287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244925, "worst_return": 0.076006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0203, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.270642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0203, "worst_return": 0.0203, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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11.839733, 11.761164, 11.445171, 11.238553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.656, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5254.1, "trend": 11.008167, "fair_value": 8.860212, "relative_strength": 0.062739, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.359921, "energy": 61.831169, "activity_lines": [ 11.761067, 11.759818, 11.493524, 11.284544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.344, "volume": 3820, "typical_volume": 5292.95, "trend": 11.0628, "fair_value": 8.887763, "relative_strength": -3.316414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.21804, "energy": 37.628432, "activity_lines": [ 11.6068, 11.696182, 11.507257, 11.306211 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.966, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 4294.1, "trend": 11.111867, "fair_value": 8.919301, "relative_strength": -1.074014, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.581645, "energy": 42.601482, "activity_lines": [ 11.6944, 11.746073, 11.5762, 11.364482 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }