{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8c7030f-1fa4-4aea-8b75-3799b5272a62", "symbol": "PSN", "name": "Persimmon Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.822, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.107, "architecture_energy": 11.644, "architecture_maturity": 76.194, "architecture_confidence": 63.344, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.12, "rotation_up": 34.08, "upward_expansion": 30.18, "deceleration": 49.7, "rotation_down": 17.43, "downward_expansion": 43.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 1119.566667, 1095.123171, 1087.081038, 1120.995897 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1166.5, "trend_reference": 1190.253845, "distance_from_trend": -0.019957, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1276.220751, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.381496, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170045, "excess_performance": -0.236323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019957, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04628, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.660203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15023658, "relative_activity": 1.498764, "balance": 2.660203, "dry_up": 1.155058, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067545, "annualized_volatility": 0.464028, "from_high_reference": -0.24812, "from_low_reference": 0.231265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1190.253845, "fair_value_reference": 1276.220751, "structural_low": 947.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.000201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002855, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.186114, "worst_return": -0.190413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.035482, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080102, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.261591, "worst_return": -0.339715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.055929, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.121878, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.361771, "worst_return": -0.371847, 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-15.116851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.915541, "energy": 26.098463, "activity_lines": [ 1069.333333, 1062.318974, 1078.615189, 1135.946353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1107.0, "volume": 12940553, "typical_volume": 10453829.05, "trend": 1204.288395, "fair_value": 1276.507382, "relative_strength": -14.310611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.740527, "energy": 22.200351, "activity_lines": [ 1082.766667, 1070.46667, 1078.149841, 1129.219082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1107.0, "volume": 7726606, "typical_volume": 9804916.45, "trend": 1196.67098, "fair_value": 1276.085346, "relative_strength": -14.967771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.367002, "energy": 16.90058, "activity_lines": [ 1091.166667, 1077.507566, 1079.58193, 1122.942411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1166.5, "volume": 15023658, "typical_volume": 10024030.7, "trend": 1190.253845, "fair_value": 1276.220751, "relative_strength": -10.381496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.106677, "energy": 11.64386, "activity_lines": [ 1119.566667, 1095.123171, 1087.081038, 1120.995897 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }