{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8cfebd0-c21b-415b-967b-529a213e2fa5", "symbol": "5206", "name": "Kunyue Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.006, "architecture_energy": 12.056, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.814, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.92, "rotation_up": 31.59, "upward_expansion": 29.19, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 28.76, "downward_expansion": 55.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.563334, 21.230655, 21.193394, 22.018744 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.450001, "trend_reference": 23.378611, "distance_from_trend": -0.03972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.128079, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201865, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.887416, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.173209, "excess_performance": -0.614581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105245, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 716635, "relative_activity": 0.865071, "balance": 0.755848, "dry_up": 0.560108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05696, "annualized_volatility": 0.330599, "from_high_reference": -0.366127, "from_low_reference": 0.152496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.378611, "fair_value_reference": 28.128079, "structural_low": 19.479457, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.00597, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.026636, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.082811, "worst_return": -0.132759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020681, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.118293, "worst_return": -0.278798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.070611, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.05581, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.300431, "worst_return": -0.278922, "sufficient": 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"trend": 23.901793, "fair_value": 28.046779, "relative_strength": -45.810931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.00437, "energy": 49.268756, "activity_lines": [ 20.497413, 20.71318, 21.117248, 22.203834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.200001, "volume": 485232, "typical_volume": 803996.65, "trend": 23.617116, "fair_value": 28.087264, "relative_strength": -41.574882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.87441, "energy": 30.65408, "activity_lines": [ 21.02339, 20.972684, 21.133569, 22.094041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.450001, "volume": 716635, "typical_volume": 828412.25, "trend": 23.378611, "fair_value": 28.128079, "relative_strength": -41.887416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.005589, "energy": 12.05615, "activity_lines": [ 21.563334, 21.230655, 21.193394, 22.018744 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }