{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8d0739a-cd5c-409e-993b-47bf90e43e86", "symbol": "RIO", "name": "Rio Tinto Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.241, "architecture_energy": 17.58, "architecture_maturity": 36.646, "architecture_confidence": 89.23, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.01, "rotation_up": 23.91, "upward_expansion": 43.33, "deceleration": 79.57, "rotation_down": 36.8, "downward_expansion": 35.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 169.139337, 169.840548, 173.43043, 171.262066 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 177.690002, "trend_reference": 166.918583, "distance_from_trend": 0.064531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 122.747852, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.447602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.719474, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157318, "excess_performance": 0.093612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.447602, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089683, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.127195, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5497807, "relative_activity": 1.09932, "balance": 0.550773, "dry_up": 1.171439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052758, "annualized_volatility": 0.263727, "from_high_reference": -0.092678, "from_low_reference": 0.629686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 166.918583, "fair_value_reference": 122.747852, "structural_low": 142.199997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009849, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.00993, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.074655, "worst_return": -0.126515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.019545, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005789, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.059027, "worst_return": -0.142318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.019684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136392, "worst_return": -0.070862, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079232, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058245, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073519, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.094606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151873, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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"trend": 163.552063, "fair_value": 120.987005, "relative_strength": 12.897502, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.435876, "energy": 21.121643, "activity_lines": [ 171.138002, 176.218911, 174.892738, 170.55544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 160.949997, "volume": 5991942, "typical_volume": 5401786.7, "trend": 164.25566, "fair_value": 121.37646, "relative_strength": 9.830207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.797646, "energy": 29.339162, "activity_lines": [ 166.722667, 172.928547, 173.931334, 170.387564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 159.990005, "volume": 5259718, "typical_volume": 5225823.0, "trend": 164.782922, "fair_value": 121.760641, "relative_strength": 8.839809, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.34507, "energy": 39.464556, "activity_lines": [ 163.545336, 169.786729, 172.890906, 170.112361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 170.570007, "volume": 6684453, "typical_volume": 5192016.65, "trend": 165.65666, "fair_value": 122.222488, "relative_strength": 12.525686, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.785748, "energy": 30.588881, "activity_lines": [ 165.053337, 169.036912, 172.851811, 170.485721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.690002, "volume": 5497807, "typical_volume": 5001098.8, "trend": 166.918583, "fair_value": 122.747852, "relative_strength": 12.719474, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.240874, "energy": 17.579715, "activity_lines": [ 169.139337, 169.840548, 173.43043, 171.262066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }