{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8d0d09f-c90c-4c13-9aea-64389bf83a04", "symbol": "ALMIB", "name": "Amo\u00e9ba S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.995, "architecture_energy": 58.193, "architecture_maturity": 49.778, "architecture_confidence": 81.821, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 15.41, "upward_expansion": 9.32, "deceleration": 48.43, "rotation_down": 66.72, "downward_expansion": 82.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.7046, 0.721436, 0.775576, 0.811813 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.73, "trend_reference": 0.856033, "distance_from_trend": -0.147229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.734326, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.28802, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203926, "excess_performance": -0.257237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.25288, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202701, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 752725, "relative_activity": 0.788513, "balance": 0.911504, "dry_up": 0.871983, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089463, "annualized_volatility": 0.421029, "from_high_reference": -0.390651, "from_low_reference": 0.177419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.856033, "fair_value_reference": 0.734326, "structural_low": 0.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.003417, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.015922, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.577236, "worst_return": -0.176056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.06137, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.105599, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.553542, "worst_return": -0.262015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.088815, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19835, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.423611, "worst_return": -0.509787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246704, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04142, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004228, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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0.673, "volume": 1083489, "typical_volume": 1200443.9, "trend": 0.8773, "fair_value": 0.733115, "relative_strength": -28.893247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.405879, "energy": 77.064464, "activity_lines": [ 0.703733, 0.739364, 0.796052, 0.831585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.706, "volume": 387095, "typical_volume": 1120514.85, "trend": 0.865167, "fair_value": 0.733685, "relative_strength": -26.321753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.506854, "energy": 62.922457, "activity_lines": [ 0.698333, 0.726673, 0.783971, 0.820533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.73, "volume": 752725, "typical_volume": 954612.9, "trend": 0.856033, "fair_value": 0.734326, "relative_strength": -25.28802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.995353, "energy": 58.192971, "activity_lines": [ 0.7046, 0.721436, 0.775576, 0.811813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }