{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8f4a610-e065-476d-8ab8-317aae390de0", "symbol": "SPLIL", "name": "SPL Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 93.471, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.558, "architecture_energy": 27.256, "architecture_maturity": 17.674, "architecture_confidence": 74.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.78, "rotation_up": 46.35, "upward_expansion": 75.47, "deceleration": 57.88, "rotation_down": 23.75, "downward_expansion": 4.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.714, 31.576545, 31.238428, 30.520279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.689999, "trend_reference": 29.773333, "distance_from_trend": 0.097962, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.983141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.332628, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.824399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.104392, "excess_performance": 0.148101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097962, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.332628, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008244, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024753, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104392, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399522, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41260, "relative_activity": 0.842522, "balance": 1.399522, "dry_up": 1.176269, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093183, "annualized_volatility": 0.480901, "from_high_reference": -0.27677, "from_low_reference": 0.618317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.773333, "fair_value_reference": 48.983141, "structural_low": 20.200001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.066616, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.070529, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.286938, "worst_return": -0.20288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.027978, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.054675, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.079179, "worst_return": -0.192935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076253, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.074528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063169, "worst_return": -0.129032, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.68, "volume": 81207, "typical_volume": 50701.95, "trend": 29.982, "fair_value": 49.611987, "relative_strength": -1.33759, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.335007, "energy": 45.137938, "activity_lines": [ 32.038, 31.435818, 30.823571, 30.223398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.25, "volume": 74940, "typical_volume": 52379.35, "trend": 29.873666, "fair_value": 49.402051, "relative_strength": -2.971782, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.304492, "energy": 38.262184, "activity_lines": [ 31.903333, 31.486182, 30.966714, 30.305204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.26, "volume": 33010, "typical_volume": 51940.6, "trend": 29.742666, "fair_value": 49.191218, "relative_strength": -7.84349, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.378543, "energy": 23.163984, "activity_lines": [ 31.346, 31.314546, 30.996381, 30.330129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.689999, "volume": 41260, "typical_volume": 48972.0, "trend": 29.773333, "fair_value": 48.983141, "relative_strength": -0.824399, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.557564, "energy": 27.256239, "activity_lines": [ 31.714, 31.576545, 31.238428, 30.520279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }