{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8fac04f-992d-4b94-b961-09d687e84e95", "symbol": "EMKAY", "name": "Emkay Global Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.861, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.238, "architecture_energy": 14.787, "architecture_maturity": 46.523, "architecture_confidence": 63.072, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.24, "rotation_up": 12.85, "upward_expansion": 24.62, "deceleration": 77.72, "rotation_down": 54.07, "downward_expansion": 28.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.41113, 253.833284, 249.717656, 244.011172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 238.860001, "trend_reference": 242.450624, "distance_from_trend": -0.01481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 208.535466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.145417, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.454094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048177, "excess_performance": -0.004468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.145417, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028994, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064541, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003261, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.289528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134623, "relative_activity": 0.617669, "balance": 1.289528, "dry_up": 0.807903, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123046, "annualized_volatility": 0.616784, "from_high_reference": -0.417272, "from_low_reference": 0.284194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 242.450624, "fair_value_reference": 208.535466, "structural_low": 186.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.056373, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.057388, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.140674, "worst_return": -0.232158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.144412, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292892, "worst_return": -0.259921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051959, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.081521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.539995, "worst_return": -0.259633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -1.366915, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.279133, "energy": 14.308702, "activity_lines": [ 262.849746, 265.233604, 249.697391, 245.032916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 237.981294, "volume": 161926, "typical_volume": 210120.55, "trend": 244.619722, "fair_value": 206.454672, "relative_strength": -3.485773, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.126224, "energy": 11.533084, "activity_lines": [ 252.495483, 261.879832, 249.680084, 244.567816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 240.217026, "volume": 249917, "typical_volume": 216840.9, "trend": 243.08529, "fair_value": 207.497543, "relative_strength": -5.116673, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.547637, "energy": 18.91008, "activity_lines": [ 246.377712, 258.144533, 249.834555, 244.283771 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 238.860001, "volume": 134623, "typical_volume": 217953.25, "trend": 242.450624, "fair_value": 208.535466, "relative_strength": -6.454094, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.238144, "energy": 14.786521, "activity_lines": [ 242.41113, 253.833284, 249.717656, 244.011172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }