{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8fac7ba-c0a2-4a68-a80d-6257071fd54e", "symbol": "EX13", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe Select Dividend 30 UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.803, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.836, "architecture_energy": 95.192, "architecture_maturity": 11.857, "architecture_confidence": 65.836, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.47, "rotation_up": 82.71, "upward_expansion": 95.27, "deceleration": 44.68, "rotation_down": 8.62, "downward_expansion": 21.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.522902, 26.036968, 25.71351, 25.282853 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.155001, "trend_reference": 24.726459, "distance_from_trend": 0.098216, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.390769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476556, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.431677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138523, "excess_performance": -0.035724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028064, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138523, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.454475, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2338, "relative_activity": 0.822819, "balance": 5.454475, "dry_up": 0.53793, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018453, "annualized_volatility": 0.132442, "from_high_reference": -0.002205, "from_low_reference": 0.34871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.726459, "fair_value_reference": 18.390769, "structural_low": 22.227132, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.010632, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.002683, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.066525, "worst_return": -0.093503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036264, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.004979, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.127767, "worst_return": -0.05425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.060512, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008763, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231096, "worst_return": -0.148108, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 57.719482, "energy": 37.728142, "activity_lines": [ 25.429869, 25.453747, 25.22232, 24.859793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.059999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3572.4, "trend": 24.465314, "fair_value": 18.22212, "relative_strength": -5.710947, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.948462, "energy": 56.302385, "activity_lines": [ 25.666578, 25.553154, 25.343473, 24.970231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.745001, "volume": 1188, "typical_volume": 3308.45, "trend": 24.589053, "fair_value": 18.304904, "relative_strength": -3.145758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.123837, "energy": 84.339462, "activity_lines": [ 26.085772, 25.764015, 25.517423, 25.117308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.155001, "volume": 2338, "typical_volume": 2841.45, "trend": 24.726459, "fair_value": 18.390769, "relative_strength": -4.431677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.836346, "energy": 95.192123, "activity_lines": [ 26.522902, 26.036968, 25.71351, 25.282853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }