{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a8fef64a-6f40-49b3-bafa-a18ca2e34803", "symbol": "SCCO", "name": "Southern Copper Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.879, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.504, "architecture_energy": 56.75, "architecture_maturity": 7.558, "architecture_confidence": 41.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.18, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 26.84, "deceleration": 39.24, "rotation_down": 68.34, "downward_expansion": 67.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 3196.416016, 3239.476385, 3231.807309, 3244.243149 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3120.0, "trend_reference": 3265.206454, "distance_from_trend": -0.044471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2063.05073, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.512323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.307371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059165, "excess_performance": -0.004498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044471, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.512323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093074, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.986141, "dry_up": 0.005438, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019141, "annualized_volatility": 0.497776, "from_high_reference": -0.164368, "from_low_reference": 0.860099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3265.206454, "fair_value_reference": 2063.05073, "structural_low": 2870.303467, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014584, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.087148, "worst_return": -0.16607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.055251, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.126202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263619, "worst_return": -0.233368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.040501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.124475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181062, "worst_return": -0.236006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.760532, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.431201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.893317, "worst_return": -0.182982, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086737, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0591, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161383, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1281.806763, "volume": 2589, "typical_volume": 150.85, "trend": 1226.220227, "fair_value": 1148.309146, "relative_strength": 11.218197, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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3265.206454, "fair_value": 2063.05073, "relative_strength": 9.307371, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.503542, "energy": 56.749921, "activity_lines": [ 3196.416016, 3239.476385, 3231.807309, 3244.243149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }