{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a901585c-d87f-46dc-a426-4f83ff6ce542", "symbol": "MLVN", "name": "Malvern International Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.118, "architecture_energy": 29.687, "architecture_maturity": 34.899, "architecture_confidence": 82.897, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.12, "rotation_up": 21.24, "upward_expansion": 2.89, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 44.65, "downward_expansion": 73.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.211667, 0.212364, 0.215524, 0.218699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.215, "trend_reference": 0.225667, "distance_from_trend": -0.047267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.21725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.182978, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156863, "excess_performance": -0.208098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033339, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114555, "relative_activity": 1.389914, "balance": 1.033339, "dry_up": 0.614539, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061753, "annualized_volatility": 0.171359, "from_high_reference": -0.232143, "from_low_reference": 0.409836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.225667, "fair_value_reference": 0.21725, "structural_low": 0.195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003628, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.074845, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.631579, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041866, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004687, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.642105, "worst_return": -0.364162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010441, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.842105, "worst_return": -0.450867, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134615, "active": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 72000, "typical_volume": 94811.55, "trend": 0.230167, "fair_value": 0.216897, "relative_strength": -11.600616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.320815, "energy": 53.833166, "activity_lines": [ 0.211, 0.215, 0.2175, 0.221968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.21, "volume": 14500, "typical_volume": 88825.5, "trend": 0.2285, "fair_value": 0.216962, "relative_strength": -12.787631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.648651, "energy": 54.521297, "activity_lines": [ 0.21, 0.213636, 0.216595, 0.220667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 1543, "typical_volume": 82684.5, "trend": 0.227, "fair_value": 0.217026, "relative_strength": -13.888647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.396795, "energy": 36.387981, "activity_lines": [ 0.209667, 0.212455, 0.215786, 0.219473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.215, "volume": 114555, "typical_volume": 82418.75, "trend": 0.225667, "fair_value": 0.21725, "relative_strength": -12.182978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.117599, "energy": 29.687277, "activity_lines": [ 0.211667, 0.212364, 0.215524, 0.218699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }