{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a9038ff0-70c0-4f86-9469-bd844dfdc249",
    "symbol": "WAM",
    "name": "WAM Capital Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -29.912,
    "architecture_energy": 22.807,
    "architecture_maturity": 92.291,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.009,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.01,
        "rotation_up": 32.17,
        "upward_expansion": 19.04,
        "deceleration": 46.72,
        "rotation_down": 19.49,
        "downward_expansion": 53.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.571333,
        1.556091,
        1.566957,
        1.587036
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 1.58,
    "trend_reference": 1.622318,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.026085,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1.422353,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110836,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.809061,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.073081,
    "excess_performance": -0.136786,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026085,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.031132,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110836,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.089369,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.088091,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.114283,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.073081,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.5135,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4872871,
      "relative_activity": 1.121902,
      "balance": 0.5135,
      "dry_up": 0.979776,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026446,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.138692,
      "from_high_reference": -0.122254,
      "from_low_reference": 0.063973
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.622318,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.422353,
      "structural_low": 1.485,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.011679,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006193,
        "regime_survival": 0.833333,
        "best_return": 0.057508,
        "worst_return": -0.064475,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.030087,
        "positive_rate": 0.166667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056462,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.137125,
        "worst_return": -0.0724,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.049759,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.07832,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.051419,
        "worst_return": -0.119421,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.05518,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.116435,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.052878,
        "worst_return": -0.163237,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.036858,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020134,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.027211,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.055921,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.034035,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013245,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.068404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.07365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.099389,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.00565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
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        "return": 0.00565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 26.864081,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.575,
        "volume": 4072497,
        "typical_volume": 4398008.2,
        "trend": 1.627903,
        "fair_value": 1.41991,
        "relative_strength": -6.253643,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.106222,
        "energy": 24.515088,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.566,
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          1.567687,
          1.590126
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.58,
        "volume": 4872871,
        "typical_volume": 4343400.1,
        "trend": 1.622318,
        "fair_value": 1.422353,
        "relative_strength": -8.809061,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -29.912399,
        "energy": 22.807344,
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          1.571333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}