{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a905a996-361d-4cb4-9642-d854afcca0dc", "symbol": "AWDU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II MSCI World PAB UCITS ETFUSD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.441, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.777, "architecture_energy": 70.205, "architecture_maturity": 58.976, "architecture_confidence": 74.29, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.67, "rotation_up": 60.1, "upward_expansion": 85.31, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 27.21, "downward_expansion": 11.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.5272, 11.459855, 11.310657, 11.090215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.808, "trend_reference": 10.844167, "distance_from_trend": 0.08888, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.169198, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161154, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.767423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139548, "excess_performance": -0.031343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08888, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028172, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05867, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139548, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.980717, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 502, "relative_activity": 0.090109, "balance": 9.980717, "dry_up": 0.414688, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016859, "annualized_volatility": 0.109513, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.205882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.844167, "fair_value_reference": 10.169198, "structural_low": 9.792, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.018918, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007573, "worst_return": 0.003712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01244, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050068, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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11.300218, 11.016395, 10.84974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.526, "volume": 1909, "typical_volume": 5835.25, "trend": 10.723633, "fair_value": 10.114732, "relative_strength": -5.767456, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.895975, "energy": 69.26365, "activity_lines": [ 11.395733, 11.355018, 11.087924, 10.903759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.442, "volume": 7105, "typical_volume": 5961.15, "trend": 10.7549, "fair_value": 10.128276, "relative_strength": -4.965958, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.659374, "energy": 64.769844, "activity_lines": [ 11.425867, 11.380691, 11.14611, 10.950105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.382, "volume": 264, "typical_volume": 5888.3, "trend": 10.7823, "fair_value": 10.140939, "relative_strength": -5.151048, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.293352, "energy": 69.839317, "activity_lines": [ 11.4212, 11.387673, 11.193829, 10.990563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.328, "volume": 1370, "typical_volume": 5567.1, "trend": 10.8091, "fair_value": 10.15281, "relative_strength": -6.069785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.148922, "energy": 58.579456, "activity_lines": [ 11.3968, 11.380255, 11.231938, 11.02577 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.808, "volume": 502, "typical_volume": 5571.05, "trend": 10.844167, "fair_value": 10.169198, "relative_strength": -4.767423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.77717, "energy": 70.204719, "activity_lines": [ 11.5272, 11.459855, 11.310657, 11.090215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }