{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a907cda3-489a-4cc6-9051-0cad1837e18b", "symbol": "LTPZ", "name": "PIMCO ETF TRUST 15+ YR US TIPS INDEX FD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.91, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.757, "architecture_energy": 82.164, "architecture_maturity": 11.316, "architecture_confidence": 80.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.17, "rotation_up": 8.53, "upward_expansion": 19.7, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 81.58, "downward_expansion": 97.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.982435, 48.630212, 49.20901, 49.568894 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 47.98, "trend_reference": 50.054452, "distance_from_trend": -0.041444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.940579, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.039258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.449143, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057481, "excess_performance": -0.183106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041444, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011926, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.039258, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037044, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057481, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.033802, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1384896, "relative_activity": 2.031687, "balance": 1.033802, "dry_up": 1.624238, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018402, "annualized_volatility": 0.095364, "from_high_reference": -0.093419, "from_low_reference": 0.01503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.054452, "fair_value_reference": 49.940579, "structural_low": 47.269533, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.009026, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": -0.008897, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.070812, "worst_return": -0.106385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.020512, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.065386, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.048353, "worst_return": -0.128462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.007818, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.104708, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.024305, "worst_return": -0.129137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.29189, "energy": 42.054029, "activity_lines": [ 49.610017, 49.764446, 49.917324, 50.1541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.720552, "volume": 691739, "typical_volume": 563410.5, "trend": 50.340978, "fair_value": 49.994936, "relative_strength": -11.801143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.233783, "energy": 64.173143, "activity_lines": [ 49.226976, 49.569981, 49.783172, 50.045613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.829141, "volume": 1004090, "typical_volume": 592914.7, "trend": 50.247213, "fair_value": 49.969692, "relative_strength": -12.591569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.220526, "energy": 80.915875, "activity_lines": [ 48.641078, 49.239185, 49.581222, 49.883559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.541909, "volume": 1347910, "typical_volume": 645361.4, "trend": 50.151989, "fair_value": 49.951174, "relative_strength": -13.667927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.054621, "energy": 86.527484, "activity_lines": [ 48.136843, 48.877395, 49.36801, 49.709023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.98, "volume": 1384896, "typical_volume": 681648.15, "trend": 50.054452, "fair_value": 49.940579, "relative_strength": -15.449143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.756704, "energy": 82.163839, "activity_lines": [ 47.982435, 48.630212, 49.20901, 49.568894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }