{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a90bf7db-14c8-446e-85f6-37521d158c4a", "symbol": "BNN", "name": "BRAIN Biotech AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.982, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.424, "architecture_energy": 11.59, "architecture_maturity": 37.321, "architecture_confidence": 79.928, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.51, "rotation_up": 28.13, "upward_expansion": 49.48, "deceleration": 77.48, "rotation_down": 23.2, "downward_expansion": 22.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.814667, 2.828, 2.844476, 2.766108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.78, "trend_reference": 2.647, "distance_from_trend": 0.050246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.825385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.119858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.241071, "excess_performance": 0.176432, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016063, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.32646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.241071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.532088, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19687, "relative_activity": 0.763547, "balance": 0.532088, "dry_up": 0.612744, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084671, "annualized_volatility": 0.498626, "from_high_reference": -0.285347, "from_low_reference": 0.425641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.647, "fair_value_reference": 2.825385, "structural_low": 2.14, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052124, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060782, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094828, "worst_return": -0.169184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042471, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.013409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046025, "worst_return": -0.287009, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01046, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027021, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.127413, "worst_return": -0.412387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.223353, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.177824, "worst_return": -0.268882, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.13871, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.367521, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.29003, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.161017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.177033, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.289617, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": 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"up", "direction": 34.879954, "energy": 18.528077, "activity_lines": [ 2.854, 2.890182, 2.819857, 2.721312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.76, "volume": 12199, "typical_volume": 30889.8, "trend": 2.629333, "fair_value": 2.860192, "relative_strength": 6.216434, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.75743, "energy": 16.572728, "activity_lines": [ 2.82, 2.856, 2.823571, 2.730022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.78, "volume": 7613, "typical_volume": 30945.35, "trend": 2.635333, "fair_value": 2.848846, "relative_strength": 5.49754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.08344, "energy": 14.625667, "activity_lines": [ 2.801333, 2.832909, 2.828143, 2.739742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.91, "volume": 23696, "typical_volume": 27818.9, "trend": 2.646, "fair_value": 2.838013, "relative_strength": 7.716783, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.26566, "energy": 13.91768, "activity_lines": [ 2.834, 2.841818, 2.843, 2.757462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.78, "volume": 19687, "typical_volume": 25783.6, "trend": 2.647, "fair_value": 2.825385, "relative_strength": -0.119858, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.424217, "energy": 11.589972, "activity_lines": [ 2.814667, 2.828, 2.844476, 2.766108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }