{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a911b839-3f80-49b7-8838-3685595f3be8", "symbol": "EUCH", "name": "WisdomTree Long CHF Short EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.884, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.059, "architecture_energy": 94.355, "architecture_maturity": 9.673, "architecture_confidence": 78.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.98, "rotation_up": 8.22, "upward_expansion": 21.48, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 85.87, "downward_expansion": 97.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.744, 61.012181, 61.336095, 61.54886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.459999, "trend_reference": 61.751667, "distance_from_trend": -0.020917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.254808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.050886, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026566, "excess_performance": -0.197458, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000502, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.153211, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174, "relative_activity": 0.274947, "balance": 0.153211, "dry_up": 1.587659, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004555, "annualized_volatility": 0.031006, "from_high_reference": -0.043354, "from_low_reference": 0.004319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.751667, "fair_value_reference": 61.254808, "structural_low": 60.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005918, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.00821, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.03827, "worst_return": -0.016743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.000343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026123, "worst_return": -0.00543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016142, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.113651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033445, "worst_return": -0.000326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"volume": 1102, "typical_volume": 816.55, "trend": 61.817667, "fair_value": 61.251154, "relative_strength": -13.283264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.298999, "energy": 89.430162, "activity_lines": [ 61.336667, 61.481455, 61.645191, 61.771591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.810001, "volume": 2441, "typical_volume": 857.05, "trend": 61.799, "fair_value": 61.253013, "relative_strength": -13.342151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.317206, "energy": 94.936344, "activity_lines": [ 61.146, 61.331818, 61.547714, 61.706581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.669998, "volume": 302, "typical_volume": 664.35, "trend": 61.775667, "fair_value": 61.254679, "relative_strength": -13.690446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.857466, "energy": 95.686662, "activity_lines": [ 60.957333, 61.177818, 61.446381, 61.633742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.459999, "volume": 174, "typical_volume": 632.85, "trend": 61.751667, "fair_value": 61.254808, "relative_strength": -16.050886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.058542, "energy": 94.355093, "activity_lines": [ 60.744, 61.012181, 61.336095, 61.54886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }