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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.941, "architecture_energy": 34.597, "architecture_maturity": 27.258, "architecture_confidence": 78.197, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.52, "rotation_up": 53.01, "upward_expansion": 79.04, "deceleration": 57.98, "rotation_down": 21.15, "downward_expansion": 3.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 148.218, 147.845117, 145.592639, 143.763259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 149.54, "trend_reference": 142.129315, "distance_from_trend": 0.05214, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 137.005291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091491, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.754335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092406, "excess_performance": -0.033219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05214, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091491, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044453, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.451391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5634354, "relative_activity": 0.979998, "balance": 2.451391, "dry_up": 1.180547, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048211, "annualized_volatility": 0.225562, "from_high_reference": -0.058787, "from_low_reference": 0.231457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.129315, "fair_value_reference": 137.005291, "structural_low": 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"typical_volume": 5649517.55, "trend": 141.015, "fair_value": 136.551346, "relative_strength": -0.814469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.026946, "energy": 33.481957, "activity_lines": [ 147.397333, 146.976291, 144.223483, 142.803018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 148.04, "volume": 9854027, "typical_volume": 5867735.45, "trend": 141.681268, "fair_value": 136.788544, "relative_strength": -1.499538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.60235, "energy": 29.652329, "activity_lines": [ 147.518667, 147.331665, 144.860012, 143.256244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 149.54, "volume": 5634354, "typical_volume": 5749349.7, "trend": 142.129315, "fair_value": 137.005291, "relative_strength": -3.754335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.941493, "energy": 34.596873, "activity_lines": [ 148.218, 147.845117, 145.592639, 143.763259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }