{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a91913e8-e627-4f0b-a78c-9e8065f429b3", "symbol": "002353", "name": "Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.79, "architecture_energy": 21.759, "architecture_maturity": 73.711, "architecture_confidence": 91.239, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.52, "rotation_up": 24.67, "upward_expansion": 55.72, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 36.9, "downward_expansion": 19.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.491329, 143.231452, 142.326111, 135.072878 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 145.119995, "trend_reference": 123.118583, "distance_from_trend": 0.178701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 52.566496, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.760694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 52.332547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.644419, "excess_performance": 0.637019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.178701, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.760694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.664662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.523325, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313745, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.644419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80917950, "relative_activity": 0.968372, "balance": 0.74328, "dry_up": 1.359108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149675, "annualized_volatility": 0.683349, "from_high_reference": -0.178209, "from_low_reference": 2.792309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.118583, "fair_value_reference": 52.566496, "structural_low": 82.529999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086098, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.131888, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.288708, "worst_return": -0.106719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.196008, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.10662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.543632, "worst_return": -0.013227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.269811, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.170374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.479178, "worst_return": 0.143404, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100999, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12196, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.296656, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"relative_strength": 55.569103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.282325, "energy": 20.491449, "activity_lines": [ 139.619997, 145.524096, 141.105469, 132.458609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.699997, "volume": 133228639, "typical_volume": 84641111.55, "trend": 120.64225, "fair_value": 51.801704, "relative_strength": 51.92835, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.024715, "energy": 22.418968, "activity_lines": [ 135.924663, 143.449285, 141.289766, 133.493668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 145.119995, "volume": 80917950, "typical_volume": 83560807.8, "trend": 123.118583, "fair_value": 52.566496, "relative_strength": 52.332547, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.789637, "energy": 21.759424, "activity_lines": [ 137.491329, 143.231452, 142.326111, 135.072878 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }