{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a91c8b25-e94f-4db7-8feb-720127d9a648", "symbol": "AHYU", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II US High Yield Opportunities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.395, "architecture_energy": 58.144, "architecture_maturity": 70.56, "architecture_confidence": 59.676, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 51.76, "upward_expansion": 79.78, "deceleration": 68.53, "rotation_down": 28.29, "downward_expansion": 15.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.7814, 10.778573, 10.688857, 10.617144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.773, "trend_reference": 10.527133, "distance_from_trend": 0.023356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.159935, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.409604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.048059, "excess_performance": -0.122833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.048059, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.524252, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14302, "relative_activity": 1.706214, "balance": 2.524252, "dry_up": 1.236892, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007597, "annualized_volatility": 0.042406, "from_high_reference": -0.008604, "from_low_reference": 0.071407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.527133, "fair_value_reference": 10.159935, "structural_low": 10.206, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003618, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.000597, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.026056, "worst_return": -0.011633, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002727, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01473, "worst_return": -0.009276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.028675, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028675, "worst_return": 0.028675, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 10.815, "volume": 8331, "typical_volume": 9100.85, "trend": 10.485033, "fair_value": 10.146268, "relative_strength": -8.890862, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.600824, "energy": 89.285278, "activity_lines": [ 10.801367, 10.739682, 10.630357, 10.563409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.8425, "volume": 12903, "typical_volume": 8811.8, "trend": 10.503783, "fair_value": 10.15135, "relative_strength": -8.241306, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.553112, "energy": 86.90905, "activity_lines": [ 10.8187, 10.769473, 10.657367, 10.586471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.723, "volume": 5936, "typical_volume": 8017.3, "trend": 10.516783, "fair_value": 10.155493, "relative_strength": -9.530126, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.124363, "energy": 63.376226, "activity_lines": [ 10.788833, 10.771109, 10.6713, 10.600614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.773, "volume": 14302, "typical_volume": 8382.3, "trend": 10.527133, "fair_value": 10.159935, "relative_strength": -11.409604, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.394776, "energy": 58.1439, "activity_lines": [ 10.7814, 10.778573, 10.688857, 10.617144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }