{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a928b931-5dca-4386-b331-04030c289b3e", "symbol": "900939", "name": "Shanghai Huili Building Materials Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.142, "architecture_energy": 54.136, "architecture_maturity": 34.438, "architecture_confidence": 95.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 20.87, "upward_expansion": 9.84, "deceleration": 43.37, "rotation_down": 56.58, "downward_expansion": 83.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.483467, 0.488509, 0.503514, 0.518088 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.483, "trend_reference": 0.537533, "distance_from_trend": -0.101451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.468545, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.312779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155594, "excess_performance": -0.112391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081885, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.155594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.570381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 757998, "relative_activity": 0.368501, "balance": 0.570381, "dry_up": 0.661979, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064341, "annualized_volatility": 0.393344, "from_high_reference": -0.468062, "from_low_reference": 0.195545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.537533, "fair_value_reference": 0.468545, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.018663, "positive_rate": 0.435897, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.007472, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.381323, "worst_return": -0.313953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.039383, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.018645, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.863799, "worst_return": -0.188953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14771, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.076347, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.103659, "worst_return": -0.285467, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.504467, 0.500945, 0.523262, 0.536587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.473, "volume": 2002411, "typical_volume": 2588401.25, "trend": 0.554833, "fair_value": 0.467199, "relative_strength": -16.291312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.417489, "energy": 32.430743, "activity_lines": [ 0.496867, 0.494818, 0.5174, 0.530843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.486, "volume": 1556389, "typical_volume": 2490700.7, "trend": 0.549, "fair_value": 0.46766, "relative_strength": -15.064801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.291481, "energy": 31.362959, "activity_lines": [ 0.4934, 0.492509, 0.512971, 0.526402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.48, "volume": 1129900, "typical_volume": 2188290.35, "trend": 0.542867, "fair_value": 0.468096, "relative_strength": -16.538907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.660044, "energy": 42.888291, "activity_lines": [ 0.486867, 0.489818, 0.507914, 0.521951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.483, "volume": 757998, "typical_volume": 2056975.85, "trend": 0.537533, "fair_value": 0.468545, "relative_strength": -18.312779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.141588, "energy": 54.136178, "activity_lines": [ 0.483467, 0.488509, 0.503514, 0.518088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }