{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a92bb31c-ca05-432b-8d3d-1e7df3bd49d4", "symbol": "XBRMIB", "name": "Amundi FTSE MIB Daily (-2x) Inverse UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.424, "architecture_energy": 67.511, "architecture_maturity": 94.571, "architecture_confidence": 95.453, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 56.06, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.145373, 0.146862, 0.15513, 0.166713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1391, "trend_reference": 0.181003, "distance_from_trend": -0.231506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.364589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.618475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.432931, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.322455, "excess_performance": -0.493347, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.231506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122507, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.618475, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041712, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.424329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062739, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.322455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613387, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28568181, "relative_activity": 0.751541, "balance": 0.613387, "dry_up": 0.751505, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062711, "annualized_volatility": 0.357114, "from_high_reference": -0.459806, "from_low_reference": 0.010901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.181003, "fair_value_reference": 0.364589, "structural_low": 0.1376, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": -0.016904, "positive_rate": 0.38, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026565, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.173892, "worst_return": -0.233721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.111231, "positive_rate": 0.058824, "directional_follow_through": 0.941176, "median_excess_return": -0.16303, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.126575, "worst_return": -0.193636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.21281, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.294356, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.310443, "worst_return": -0.303355, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.955574, "energy": 63.813014, "activity_lines": [ 0.14842, 0.149995, 0.160663, 0.171987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1478, "volume": 16513188, "typical_volume": 39473116.5, "trend": 0.18328, "fair_value": 0.367835, "relative_strength": -37.954005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.683241, "energy": 61.143146, "activity_lines": [ 0.148167, 0.149062, 0.158144, 0.169563 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1391, "volume": 28568181, "typical_volume": 38012788.45, "trend": 0.181003, "fair_value": 0.364589, "relative_strength": -42.432931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.423938, "energy": 67.510735, "activity_lines": [ 0.145373, 0.146862, 0.15513, 0.166713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }