{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a92e2e6b-d0db-4386-b466-678293ee146c", "symbol": "EXC", "name": "Exelon Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.308, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.108, "architecture_energy": 7.163, "architecture_maturity": 24.619, "architecture_confidence": 45.404, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.12, "rotation_up": 26.42, "upward_expansion": 26.42, "deceleration": 61.84, "rotation_down": 41.27, "downward_expansion": 28.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.216, 46.508, 46.220878, 46.373944 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.61, "trend_reference": 46.290559, "distance_from_trend": -0.014702, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.520626, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.080122, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047428, "excess_performance": -0.140026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.120801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047428, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37448185, "relative_activity": 0.919969, "balance": 0.853947, "dry_up": 1.057219, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046298, "annualized_volatility": 0.243908, "from_high_reference": -0.091032, "from_low_reference": 0.100071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.290559, "fair_value_reference": 39.520626, "structural_low": 42.861642, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.000475, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.007589, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.085062, "worst_return": -0.150181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034625, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.074008, "worst_return": -0.163463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058773, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.132902, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.168457, "worst_return": 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"energy": 25.353557, "activity_lines": [ 46.85, 46.504856, 46.268847, 46.32668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.53, "volume": 44497217, "typical_volume": 40880128.35, "trend": 46.098727, "fair_value": 39.390741, "relative_strength": -3.82401, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.452107, "energy": 28.475576, "activity_lines": [ 47.083333, 46.781236, 46.358135, 46.429217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.82, "volume": 53373769, "typical_volume": 41378100.4, "trend": 46.187993, "fair_value": 39.45803, "relative_strength": -7.507162, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.051533, "energy": 8.5127, "activity_lines": [ 46.632, 46.6639, 46.291089, 46.411234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.61, "volume": 37448185, "typical_volume": 40705935.8, "trend": 46.290559, "fair_value": 39.520626, "relative_strength": -12.080122, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.107919, "energy": 7.162604, "activity_lines": [ 46.216, 46.508, 46.220878, 46.373944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }