{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a92e3479-76ca-4c5f-afcb-e15d25bd16e3", "symbol": "MSUMI", "name": "Motherson Sumi Wiring India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.575, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.356, "architecture_energy": 23.529, "architecture_maturity": 9.527, "architecture_confidence": 52.729, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.17, "rotation_up": 55.26, "upward_expansion": 38.98, "deceleration": 26.62, "rotation_down": 17.31, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.587715, 40.13877, 39.802935, 39.842517 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.16, "trend_reference": 40.389113, "distance_from_trend": 0.019086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.785767, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.929972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04123, "excess_performance": 0.002479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019086, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036878, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04713, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92338317, "relative_activity": 2.393097, "balance": 1.04713, "dry_up": 1.310131, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048176, "annualized_volatility": 0.25361, "from_high_reference": -0.231946, "from_low_reference": 0.152941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.389113, "fair_value_reference": 41.785767, "structural_low": 35.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.028247, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011653, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028247, "worst_return": 0.028247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005699, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.003282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005699, "worst_return": 0.005699, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.265433, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20894, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265433, "worst_return": 0.265433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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39.237744, 39.343333, 39.954095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.34, "volume": 45382277, "typical_volume": 35653113.8, "trend": 41.087113, "fair_value": 41.741961, "relative_strength": -3.654015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.698614, "energy": 17.960956, "activity_lines": [ 40.061038, 39.399137, 39.426602, 39.890173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.110001, "volume": 25043523, "typical_volume": 36018034.3, "trend": 40.91978, "fair_value": 41.756878, "relative_strength": -1.981444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.096879, "energy": 13.643314, "activity_lines": [ 40.179675, 39.557985, 39.501586, 39.827134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.610001, "volume": 39442967, "typical_volume": 37053212.5, "trend": 40.61178, "fair_value": 41.76821, "relative_strength": -3.416275, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.792117, "energy": 9.914806, "activity_lines": [ 40.290039, 39.807014, 39.629713, 39.807148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.16, "volume": 92338317, "typical_volume": 38585284.65, "trend": 40.389113, "fair_value": 41.785767, "relative_strength": -2.929972, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.355602, "energy": 23.529159, "activity_lines": [ 40.587715, 40.13877, 39.802935, 39.842517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }