{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a93587aa-0c82-401f-a927-2a0d2305e8ae", "symbol": "G1A", "name": "GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.416, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.348, "architecture_energy": 42.417, "architecture_maturity": 15.313, "architecture_confidence": 62.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.59, "rotation_up": 60.68, "upward_expansion": 50.57, "deceleration": 34.13, "rotation_down": 18.78, "downward_expansion": 13.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.463333, 61.521817, 59.805191, 59.720589 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 63.799999, "trend_reference": 59.82693, "distance_from_trend": 0.066409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.114859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325994, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.056101, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041221, "excess_performance": -0.023419, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020222, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325994, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043125, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004593, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1499220, "relative_activity": 1.098126, "balance": 1.088186, "dry_up": 1.211874, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050096, "annualized_volatility": 0.269696, "from_high_reference": -0.029658, "from_low_reference": 0.206891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.82693, "fair_value_reference": 48.114859, "structural_low": 53.700001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008404, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061564, "worst_return": -0.032128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04139, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07813, "worst_return": -0.129405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.09254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148189, "worst_return": 0.03689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 2.978821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.247412, "energy": 49.615586, "activity_lines": [ 61.693332, 60.176363, 59.091591, 59.310995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.65, "volume": 1622020, "typical_volume": 1408419.75, "trend": 59.641674, "fair_value": 47.92822, "relative_strength": -2.01213, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.734802, "energy": 31.800796, "activity_lines": [ 61.789999, 60.720908, 59.34772, 59.45231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.799999, "volume": 1499220, "typical_volume": 1365253.6, "trend": 59.82693, "fair_value": 48.114859, "relative_strength": -1.056101, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.348058, "energy": 42.41692, "activity_lines": [ 62.463333, 61.521817, 59.805191, 59.720589 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }