{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a935e7ec-99a1-47d4-8ee3-36daf328174d", "symbol": "ROML", "name": "Raj Oil Mills Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.796, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.463, "architecture_energy": 12.955, "architecture_maturity": 27.836, "architecture_confidence": 50.389, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.13, "rotation_up": 17.42, "upward_expansion": 13.42, "deceleration": 62.63, "rotation_down": 48.67, "downward_expansion": 38.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.627333, 45.051454, 45.257714, 44.935785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.810001, "trend_reference": 44.719666, "distance_from_trend": 0.00202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.372308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092406, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.901807, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018641, "excess_performance": 0.06235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00202, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092406, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.252112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7674, "relative_activity": 0.419353, "balance": 2.252112, "dry_up": 0.798091, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05404, "annualized_volatility": 0.244853, "from_high_reference": -0.277258, "from_low_reference": 0.276275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.719666, "fair_value_reference": 49.372308, "structural_low": 35.110001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.027629, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.37037, "median_excess_return": -0.022653, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.240143, "worst_return": -0.305054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.03963, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.07089, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.343493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.15029, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.056151, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.186583, "worst_return": -0.307877, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061944, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", 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"volume": 13641, "typical_volume": 20116.4, "trend": 45.051666, "fair_value": 49.357115, "relative_strength": -1.540829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.709744, "energy": 10.580103, "activity_lines": [ 44.907332, 45.40109, 45.283571, 44.978795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.41, "volume": 15531, "typical_volume": 19235.6, "trend": 44.835, "fair_value": 49.35109, "relative_strength": -4.055695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.872996, "energy": 13.304957, "activity_lines": [ 44.623332, 45.177272, 45.252714, 44.937397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.810001, "volume": 7674, "typical_volume": 18299.6, "trend": 44.719666, "fair_value": 49.372308, "relative_strength": -3.901807, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.463158, "energy": 12.95467, "activity_lines": [ 44.627333, 45.051454, 45.257714, 44.935785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }