{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a9384fac-de41-41ce-bd73-acfd081265c7",
    "symbol": "XX25",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI China A UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 59.421,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -16.964,
    "architecture_energy": 27.525,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.962,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.573,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.34,
        "rotation_up": 14.33,
        "upward_expansion": 15.26,
        "deceleration": 71.94,
        "rotation_down": 60.67,
        "downward_expansion": 40.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        3080.637634
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3093.5,
    "trend_reference": 3050.383333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.014135,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 2467.043141,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.25393,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.083981,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.049178,
    "excess_performance": -0.002058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.014135,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024409,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.25393,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055623,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04084,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.099188,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049178,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.927873,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 7459,
      "relative_activity": 0.95762,
      "balance": 2.927873,
      "dry_up": 1.153728,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.036814,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.17574,
      "from_high_reference": -0.196698,
      "from_low_reference": 0.229531
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3050.383333,
      "fair_value_reference": 2467.043141,
      "structural_low": 2816.0,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.0029,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009338,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.299914,
        "worst_return": -0.063132,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.026297,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0487,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.186675,
        "worst_return": -0.107048,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.02188,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008829,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.155468,
        "worst_return": -0.094995,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.067549,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.083495,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.074606,
        "worst_return": -0.209704,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.140176,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029861,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009204,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.059436,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021654,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 4719.45,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 7325.85,
        "trend": 3041.383333,
        "fair_value": 2452.245064,
        "relative_strength": -6.136991,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 9.896964,
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          3113.578571,
          3082.375269
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3033.5,
        "volume": 4167,
        "typical_volume": 7280.1,
        "trend": 3046.4,
        "fair_value": 2456.805961,
        "relative_strength": -4.437432,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 12.813064,
        "energy": 21.385473,
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          3063.5,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 2982.0,
        "volume": 15710,
        "typical_volume": 7911.4,
        "trend": 3048.15,
        "fair_value": 2461.188974,
        "relative_strength": -7.203229,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -25.701985,
        "energy": 33.244987,
        "activity_lines": [
          3021.466667,
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          3100.369048,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3093.5,
        "volume": 7459,
        "typical_volume": 7789.1,
        "trend": 3050.383333,
        "fair_value": 2467.043141,
        "relative_strength": -4.083981,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.963677,
        "energy": 27.525448,
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          3034.133333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}