{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a939ae6e-f990-4cdf-9535-b6d4a7400806", "symbol": "CP9", "name": "Amundi MSCI Pacific Ex Japan SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR - EUR (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.302, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.034, "architecture_energy": 78.256, "architecture_maturity": 9.618, "architecture_confidence": 65.29, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 82.06, "upward_expansion": 93.83, "deceleration": 39.31, "rotation_down": 9.51, "downward_expansion": 15.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 667.353341, 661.298183, 656.18524, 653.681938 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 680.200012, "trend_reference": 650.766669, "distance_from_trend": 0.045229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 610.984653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113285, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.67763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042932, "excess_performance": -0.01038, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018207, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031375, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042932, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.108078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 816, "relative_activity": 1.101438, "balance": 1.108078, "dry_up": 2.024026, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016907, "annualized_volatility": 0.133182, "from_high_reference": -0.000294, "from_low_reference": 0.127653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 650.766669, "fair_value_reference": 610.984653, "structural_low": 615.099976, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.003839, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.002172, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.090863, "worst_return": -0.060162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010672, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.021842, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12142, "worst_return": -0.056584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021365, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.018008, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.043, "worst_return": -0.095599, 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-1.207635, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.735456, "energy": 61.310309, "activity_lines": [ 660.213338, 656.076363, 653.399049, 651.675916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 680.200012, "volume": 816, "typical_volume": 740.85, "trend": 650.766669, "fair_value": 610.984653, "relative_strength": -0.67763, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.033632, "energy": 78.25626, "activity_lines": [ 667.353341, 661.298183, 656.18524, 653.681938 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }